ACSIRO：2050年澳大利亚农业展望构建高效坚韧可持续的农业景观生态系统（英文原版+译版）（80页）.pdf

1、AustraliasNationalScienceAgencyAg2050ScenariosReport2024AuthorshipThisreportwasleadauthored(inalphabeticalorder)byPhilippaClegg,JamesDeverell,MichealaKuen,KateMcMahon,YasminMorgan,RohiniPoonythandKatherineWynnwithinputfromover100participantsacrossdifferentorganisationsfro

2、mgovernment,industryandresearchleaders.CSIROFuturesAtCSIROFutures,webringtogetherscience,technologyandeconomicstohelpyoudeveloptransformativestrategiesthattackleyourbiggestchallenges.AsthestrategicandeconomicadvisoryarmofAustraliasnationalscienceagency,weareuniquel

3、ypositionedtotransformcomplexityintoclarity,uncertaintyintoopportunityandinsightsintoaction.CSIROAgricultureandFoodCSIROsworkinagricultureandfoodissolvingthegreatestchallengesthroughinnovativescienceandtechnologytobuildaprofitable,productive,trustedandsustainable

4、agrifoodandfibresectorforthefuture.WorkingwithCSIROprovidesaccesstoworld-classmultidisciplinaryscience,technologyandfacilities,relevantintellectualpropertyandglobalnetworksacrossthevaluechain(fromgenetotheplate).OurpeopleandpartnershipsspanAustraliaand25countrie

5、s,fosteringasharedvisiontocreatemeasurableeconomic,environmentalandsocialimpact,anddeliveringnewpathwaysandnewtechnologiesforthefuture.AccessibilityCSIROiscommittedtoprovidingweb-accessiblecontentwhereverpossible.Ifyouarehavingdifficultieswithaccessingthisdocument,

6、pleasecontactcsiro.au/contactAcknowledgementCSIROacknowledgestheTraditionalOwnersoftheland,seaandwaters,oftheareasthatweliveandworkonacrossAustralia.WeacknowledgetheircontinuingconnectiontocultureandwepayourrespectstotheirElders,pastandpresent.Theprojectteamis

7、gratefultothemanystakeholderswhogenerouslygavetheirtimetoprovideinputtothisprojectthroughconsultations,workshops,reviewsandfeedback.WethankthemembersoftheprojectsSteeringCommittee,includingrepresentativesfromtheDepartmentofAgriculture,FisheriesandForestry,theAust

8、ralianFarmingInstituteandCSIRO.ProjectpartnershipTheAg2050ScenariosReportprojectwasledbyCSIROwithfinancialandin-kindsupportfromtheAustralianGovernmentDepartmentofAgriculture,FisheriesandForestry.CSIROwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionsofDAFFasadvocatesofco-d

10、ightmaybereproducedorcopiedinanyformorbyanymeansexceptwiththewrittenpermissionofCSIRO.ForewordAgricultureisakeyindustryforAustralia,shapingoursociety,andprovidingthefoodweeat.WhilemanyAustraliansmayneverstepfootonafarm,ourfarmingsystemstoucheveryfamilyand

11、individual.Thisreport,spanningland-basedfarming,forestry,aquacultureandfisheriesexploresthecomplexityandinterconnectionofthesesystems.DespiteAustraliassignificantroleinagricultureandinnovation,thesectorfacesthreatstoproductivity,resilienceandsustainability.Cross-sectoral,evi

12、dence-basedexplorationisessentialtobuildourunderstandingandshapeasharedvisionforwhatfarmingsystemsshould,couldandneedtolooklikeby2050.Thisreportseekstomotivatediscussionsamongindustry,researchersandgovernmententitiesregardingtheplausiblefuturesforAustralianfa

13、rmingsystems.Theprimaryaimistoexpandthescopeandurgencyofcollaborativeandstrategicplanning,ultimatelyshapingacomprehensiveplanforeffectivetransformativechangeacrosstheentireagriculturalsystem.Thisreportmarksthefirstphaseinafour-yearCSIROprogram,Ag2050,toidentify

14、thenecessaryinterventions,innovationsandsupportcrucialforaproductive,resilientandsustainablefutureforAustralianagriculture.CSIRO,asAustraliasnationalscienceagency,drawsondeepexpertiseacrossfarmingsystems,integratinginsightsfromarangeofstakeholdersincludinggovernment,in

15、dustryandresearchgroups.Togetherwithourprojectpartner,theDepartmentofAgriculture,FisheriesandForestry,wethankallthestakeholderswhocontributedtothiscriticalreport.Australiasresponsetoemergingtrendsandchallengeswilldeterminethefutureofitsfarmingsystems.Theincreasin

16、griskposedbyclimatechange,increasinggeopoliticaluncertainty,labourconstraints,changingconsumerdemandsandtherapidpaceofinnovationunderscoresthecomplexitiesfacedbyAustralianfarms.However,withinthesechallengeslieopportunitiesthatAustraliaiswell-positionedtoleveragewith

17、itsnaturalassetsandglobalposition.Thecoremessageconveyedinthisreportisthatattainingaproductive,resilientandsustainablefutureforAustralianagricultureiswithinreach.However,itwillrequiresignificantexpertise,experience,energyandacollaborativecommitmentacrossbothpubli

18、candprivatesectororganisations.Thisreportpresentsasuiteofplausible,contrastingfuturescenarios,somemoredesirablethanothers,buteachscenariopresentstrade-offsandimplications.Theseareintendedtostimulatediscussionandraisequestionsforfurtherresearchthatwillcontributeto

19、thetransformationandadaptationofourfarmingsystems,ensuringtheyarefitforthefuture.WewouldliketoacknowledgetheabsenceofAboriginalandTorresStraitIslandervoicesinthefuturescenariosinthisreport.ThisgapreflectsthesignificantcurrentunderrepresentationofAboriginala

20、ndTorresStraitIslanderknowledgeinagriculturesystems.Wewanttodoourpartininfluencingthenationalagriculturesystemstobemoreinclusive.ThisreportwillbefollowedbytheIndigenousFuturesCaringforCountryandAgriculture2050initiative,acollaborationwithCSIROandtheDepartme

21、ntofAgriculture,FisheriesandForestry.Takingarelationship-firstapproach,this2-yearinitiativeaimstoincreaseR&DpartnershipswithIndigenousorganisationsandcommunities,increaseIndigenous-ledscienceandengagement,andincreasediversity,inclusionandbelongingintheagriculturesystem

22、.Iammotivatedbythecollaborative,evidence-basedandlong-termpossibilitiespresentedinthisreport,andIhopeyouwillbetoo.MichaelRobertsonDirectorAgricultureandFood,CSIROiParticipatingorganisationsCSIROwouldliketothankallconsultedorganisationsandindividualsforcontributing

23、tothisprojectthroughconsultations,workshopsandreviews.Listedbelowarethoseorganisationsthatconsentedtobenamed.AgriculturalInnovationAustraliaAgricultureVictoriaAgriFuturesAustraliaAGZero2030AustralianBureauofAgriculturalandResourceEconomicsandSciencesAustralianCentrefor

24、InternationalAgriculturalResearchAustralianEggsAustralianFarmInstituteAustralianFoodandGroceryCouncilAustralianForestProductionsAssociationAustralianNationalUniversity(ANU)AustralianWoolInnovationBayerCropScienceAustraliaBiosecurityAdvisoryServiceBureauofMeteorologyCaneGrowe

25、rsCarbonFarmersofAustraliaColesCostaGroupCottonSeedDistributorsCropLifeDairyAustraliaDepartmentofAgriculture,FisheriesandForestryDepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWaterDepartmentofIndustry,ScienceandResourcesDepartmentofPrimaryIndustriesandRegionsDepartment

26、ofPrimeMinisterandCabinetDepartmentofRegionalNSWFisheriesResearchandDevelopmentCorporation(FRDC)FonterraAustraliaForestandWoodProductsAustraliaFutureFarmersNetworkGrainCorpGrainsResearchandDevelopmentCorporation(GRDC)InterGrainLiveCorpLoamBioMainSequenceVenturesMeatandLiv

27、estockAustraliaNationalFarmersFederationNestleAustraliaNousGroupNRMRegionsAustraliaNSWDepartmentofPrimaryIndustriesProtectedCroppingAustraliaRaboBankSADepartmentofPrimaryIndustriesandRegions(PIRSA)SimplotAustraliaSyngentaTASDepartmentofNaturalResourcesandEnvironmentTheQue

28、enslandAllianceforAgricultureandFoodInnovationUniversityofAdelaideWildlifeHealthAustraliaiiAg2050ScenariosReportContentsForeword.iParticipatingorganisations.iiExecutivesummary.ivGlossary.xii1Introduction.1TheimperativeforAustralianagriculture.1Reportmethodology.2Howtoreadt

29、hisreport.5Threepointstoconsiderthroughoutthisreport.62PrioritiesforAustralianagriculture.7Globalcontext.8Environmentandclimate.11Landandwater.14Productivityandinnovation.18Tradeandmarketaccess.233Futurescenarios.31Howtoreadthischapter.31Scenario1:RegionalAgcapitals.3

30、6Scenario2:Landscapestewardship.40Scenario3:Climatesurvival.44Scenario4:Systemdecline.484Considerations.51AppendixDriveranddriveroutcomedefinitions.59iiiExecutivesummaryTheAg2050ScenariosReportexploresarangeofsignificanttrends,risksandopportunitiestoidentifykeyshiftsa

31、ndactionsneededtosupportAustralianfarmingsystemsintothefuture.Thisreportaimstomotivatediscussionsandactionsaroundplausiblefuturesandseekstoanswerthequestion:whatdoesaproductive,resilientandsustainablefuturelooklikeforAustralianfarmingsystemsby2050Whyagricult

32、ureAsofearly2024,agricultureinAustraliahasseenseveralyearsofhighyieldandprofitabilitythroughcontinuousadaptationandleadinginnovation.However,thereareseveralkeythreatstofarmproductivity,resilience,andsustainabilitythatarealreadyimpactingfarmingsystems,fisheriesand

33、forestry.Thesegrowingthreatsincludeclimatechange,emissionsreductiontargets,supplychaindisruptions,workforceaccess,changingconsumerpreferences,marketaccess,andinnovationtimelines.WhynowThelasttwodecadeshaveshownlong-termreductionsinfarmprofit,withprojectionsestimatingtha

34、tthesegrowingthreatscouldcauseprofitabilitydeclineinsomeareasbyupto50%by2050.1Australianagriculturehasanactiveinnovationsystemfocussedmainlyonshorttomedium-termdeliverables(510years)andcommoditygroupswithinexistingfarmingsystems.Australiawillneedtoacceleratet

35、hetransformationofitscurrentfarmingsystemstorespondtothesecomplexandwhole-of-sectorchallengesanddeliveragainstthesustainability,productivityandprofitabilityneedsof2050.Assuch,thereisaneedforwhole-of-systemplanningthatprovidestheagriculturalinnovationsystemwitha

36、chievablesteppingstonestowardslong-termtransformativesystemchange.WhyfuturescenariosThegoalofthisreportistomotivatediscussionsbetweenindustry,researchersandpolicymakersonthestrategyandcoordinationneededfortheAustralianagricultureinnovationsystemtoproductivelyadd

37、resscross-sectoralchallengesandopportunities.Byexploringfourplausible,alternativefuturesforAustralianfarming,thisreportaimstoexpandthescopeandurgencyofcollaborativeandwhole-of-sectorstrategicthinkingfordecisionmakersatalllevelsacrosstheagriculturesector.Thisworkc

38、ombinesresearchbyCSIROandinputfromleadersandorganisationsacrosstheAustralianagricultureindustry,researchandgovernmentsectorstodevelopasetoffourplausibleandevidence-basedscenariosfor2050.Itwasdevelopedthroughahighlycollaborativeapproachover6monthsthatcombined

39、inputfromover100participantsacross54organisationsinaco-designworkshopseries.1HughesN,GoodayP(2021)ClimatechangeimpactsandadaptationonAustralianfarms.ABARES,DAFF.(accessed31January2024).ivAg2050ScenariosReportHowtoreadthissummaryImmerseyourselfinthefourcontrasting

40、futurescenariosbelow.Thesescenariosareevidence-basedandplausibleexplorationsofwhatAustralianfarmingsystemscouldlooklikeby2050.Whilesomemayhavemoredesirableelementsthanothers,itisimportanttonotethatthereisnoonepreferredfuturescenarioandeveryscenariopresents

41、trade-offs.WhatispossibleforAustralianfarmingiftheagricultureinnovationsystemachievesitsfullpotentialScenario1RegionalAgcapitalsScenario2LandscapestewardshipWhatcanbeachievedwithincrementalinnovationandproactiveclimateadaptationScenario3ClimatesurvivalWhatifagricu

42、lturefailstoeffectivelyrespondtothechallengesandneedsof2050Scenario4SystemdeclineEachscenariocontainsasetofkeysignposts.Signpostsaretheuniquetrends,eventsorsignalsthatcouldindicatethesectorisonapathwaytothefuturedescribedinthescenarios.Next,explorethefive

43、fundamentalshiftsAustralianeedstomaketoidentifyandpursuethefutureitwantsforitsfarmingsystems.Fiveshifts:climateadaptation,landandwater,industry,regionsandwhole-of-systemchangeweredevelopeddrawingoninsightsfromtheco-designworkshopsandCSIROsresearch.Asetofaction

44、areasweredefinedforeachfundamentalshift.Theseactionareasarenotexhaustive,buthelptoarticulatetheinitialchanges,assumptionstesting,andinitiativesrequired.Ultimately,achievingthemostoptimisticfutureisplausibleforAustralianagriculture.However,itwillrequiresignificanteffo

45、rt,collaborationandactionacrossthepublicandprivatesectors.MethodologyThrougharigorousliteraturereviewandextensiveconsultationwithstakeholders,14driversofchangewereidentified.ThesedriverswillshapethedirectionandspeedofchangeacrossAustralianfarmingsystemsto2050.Forea

46、chdriver,twocontrastingandalternativeoutcomesweredeveloped.Inaseriesofco-designworkshops,thesedriveroutcomeswerelogicallygroupedtoformthefoundationofthefourfuturescenariosinthisreport.Overthenextfewyears,theCSIROAg2050programwillcontinuetoiteratetheseinitial

47、futurescenariosthroughmodellingandconsultationtoinformthepolicyandR&Dactionsrequiredbyindustryandgovernmenttofacilitateapreferablefuture.Itisimportanttonotethatthefourfuturescenariosincludedinthisreportcoverawiderangeofplausibleoutcomes,howevertheyarenot

48、mutuallyexclusive,norexhaustiveofthefuturepossibilities.Additionally,whilethesescenarioswillhaveimplicationsacrossbroaderagrifoodvaluechains,thescopeofthisreportispre-farmgate.vRegionalAgcapitalsLargemultinationalcorporationshaveconsolidatedandseamlesslyintegratedmu

49、chofAustraliasagriculturevaluechains.Byleveragingtransformativetechnologies,increasedlevelsofproductivityhavebeenunlocked.Newworkforceopportunitieshaveemerged,concentratedinaselectfewregionalcitieswheremultiplesectorsareexperiencinggrowth.Howdoweknowweareheadinghere

50、industryinvestmentinnovelclimateadaptationstrategiesindustry-ledcollaborationandR&Dinvestmentsratesofindustryandsupplychainconsolidationinvestmentinnovelfoodandfibreproductionconcentrationofinvestmentinselectregionalcentres.Whatdoestheagriculturesectorlooklikei

51、n2050IncreasingyieldsandproductivitygainsFoodandfibrefocusthroughnewandintensifiedproductionsystemsDecreasingemissionintensityandplateauedabsoluteemissionsImprovementstothehealthofecosystemservicesSkilledanddiverseworkforceinselectgrowingregionalcitiesStep-change

52、investmentanduptakeofdisruptiveagritechEvidence-basedandAustralian-ledtradeframeworksviAg2050ScenariosReportLandscapestewardshipUsingthelandtosupporttheenergytransitionthroughcarboncaptureandtherestorationoftheenvironmentisanationalpriority.Farmingsystemsareresili

53、entandproductivebecauseproducershavetakenadvantageofarangeofdiverseincomestreams,blurringthelinesbetweenfarming,biodiversity,carbonsequestration,andenergyandfuelproduction.HowdoweknowweareheadinghereinvestmentinnovelclimateadaptationstrategiesR&Dinvestmentsacross

54、industriesandsectorsstrengthofgovernanceandguidanceacrosslandusesapplicationofnovelcross-sectoranddiversifiedbusinessmodelsgrowthinfoodandfibreproduction.Whatdoestheagriculturesectorlooklikein2050StrongAustralianbrandforhigh-valuegoodsIncreasingproductivitygain

55、sandresilienceDiversifiedintoinnovativenewmarketopportunitiesDecreasingabsoluteemissionsandincreasingcarbonsequestrationActiveimprovementtobiodiversityandecosystemservicesSkilledanddiverseworkforceattractedtothesectorStep-changeinvestmentanduptakeofdisruptiveagritechv

56、iiClimatesurvivalWithouttransformativechange,theagriculturesectorisforcedtofocusonsurvivingratherthanthriving.Producersrelocateandincrementallyadaptanddiversifytheirfarmingsystemstooffsettheimpactsofclimatechange.However,theyremainuncertainaboutthelong-termviabilit

57、yoftheirbusinesses.HowdoweknowweareheadinghereadoptionofcompoundingofincrementalclimatechangeadaptationstrategiesagricultureR&DinvestmentsapplicationofdiverselandmanagementpracticescollaborationbetweenindustryandgovernmenttrustinAustralianagriculturebrand.Whatdoesthe

58、agriculturesectorlooklikein2050PlateauingproductivityandefficiencygainsDiversifiedlandmanagementpracticesandproductsSomereductioninemissionsintensitieswhilelaggingnationalnetzerotargetsSlowdeteriorationofbiologicalbiodiversityandecosystemservicesSometalentattractio

59、nandretentionIncrementalinvestmentanduptakeoflow-risktechnologiesDiverserelationshipstomaintainanexportmarketviiiAg2050ScenariosReportSystemdeclineTheAustralianagriculturesectorhasreachedatippingpoint.Delayedandfragmenteddecision-makinghasleftproducersfacingtheecono

60、micandenvironmentalconsequencesofextremeweathereventsandbiosecurityoutbreaks.Withonlyincrementaladvancesinagritech,manyfarmbusinessesarestrugglingtomaintainprofit.Howdoweknowweareheadingherecollaborationonclimatechangeadaptationstrategiesshort-termandreactionary

61、focusofR&Dsystemon-farmproductionintensityratesofbiodiversitylossregionalmarginalisation.Whatdoestheagriculturesectorlooklikein2050DecliningyieldsandproductivitygainsFoodandfibrefocuswithtraditionalintensifiedproductionsystemsLaggingreductioninemissionintensities

62、andfailingemissionsreductiontargetsDecliningbiodiversityandecosystemserviceshealthShrinkingworkforceandincreasingnumberoffarmersexitingthesectorIncrementalinvestmentanduptakeoflow-risktechnologiesExportfocustolowpricemarketsixConsiderationsforpolicyandR&DactionsHow

63、Australiarespondstotrendsandchallengeswilldetermine,inlargepart,itsfutureoutcomes.ThefourfuturescenariosdescribeplausiblealternativefuturesforAustralianagricultureeachwithbenefitsandchallenges.ThissectionoutlinesfiveinitialshiftsthatAustralianagriculturewillneedtom

64、aketoidentifythefutureitwantsforitsfarmingsystems.ClimateadaptationAclimateadaptationshiftwillsupportAustralianfoodandfibreproductiontopursuegrowthinprofitabilityandproductivitywithinthecontextofachangingclimate.Increaseresearchintoclimatechangeimpactsunderst

65、andandforecasttheimpactsofclimatechangeandoffsetstrategiesonecosystemservicesandagricultureproductionataregionallevel.Increaseresearchonadaptationapproachesidentifyadaptationapproachesthroughcontinuedresearchandstrengtheninginternationalcross-collaboration.Testfor

66、likelysuccessofadaptationactivitiestestanddemonstratethatadaptationstrategiesareadequatemeasuresunderavarietyofglobalconditions,whatsocialandpolicymeasuresareneededinregions,andhowtomonitoradaptionactioninthesector.LandandseasAlandandseashiftwillcreateapr

67、ofitableandsustainablemixoffood,fibre,andenergyproductionandprovideopportunitiesincarbonmarkets.Improveunderstandingofon-farmemissionsreductionincludingtechnologyadoptionchallengesandincentivesmodeltrade-offsbetweenemissionreductionandproductivityunderdifferentgloba

68、lsettings,incentivisetheadoptionofemissionreductionthroughsolvingforprocessandtechnologychallenges.Modelfurtherlandandseauseoptionsandimpactsmodelstooptimisealternativelandandseausesinregions,mapsandtrackingoflandandseausechanges,monitoringimpactonnearbyeco

69、systems,andidentifyingrepurposingofnon-arableland.Deepenunderstandingofcarbonsequestrationandecosystemservicesopportunitiesidentityincentivesforlong-termsustainablepractises,carbonsequestrationopportunities,andinnewtechnologiessuchasbiotechandsyntheticecosystemservices

70、.FostersustainableagriculturalpracticesthroughIndigenous-ledresearchandIndigenous-ledco-designuseco-designandtwo-waylearningapproachestorespectfullydevelopnewknowledgebasesforagriculturalR&DthatintegrateIndigenousandscientificknowledgesystems.IndustryAnindustryshift

71、willenableaproductiveandresilientagriculturalsectorandeconomyandprovidenewopportunitiesforexportsandincomestreams.Buildsupportforskillsandhumancapitalidentifyandcommunicatetheskillsandjobsrequiredinthefuture,barriersandincentivestoeducationandcareerpathways

72、inregions,potentialtrade-offsandco-benefitsofautomation,andestablishstrategicpartnershipstobuildeducationandtalentpipelinesforregionallocations.BroadenAustraliasagricultureexportfocusmodeltheimpactsofconsolidationanddiversificationonexports,designpoliciesthatbalance

73、IPprotectionwithknowledgesharingandcollaboration,promoteAustraliansustainabilityandbiosecuritycredentialsthatcanbeevidencedbyproducerswithminimalcostandeffort.Establishsupportfromfinanceanddiversifiedincomestreamsunderstandthesettingsneededfromfinanceandinsuranc

74、eindustriestosupportfarmviabilityandresilienceundervariousclimatechangeandgeopoliticalscenarios.RecommendedareasforpolicyandR&DTheshiftslistedbelowdonotofferallthesolutions.Insteadtheypresentthetypesofchanges,assumptionstests,andinitiativesrequired.Theydrawont

75、heinsightsdevelopedduringtheco-designworkshopsandCSIROsresearchandreflectexistingaspirationsforAustralianagriculture.SignificanteffortandactionsarerequiredfromAustraliasagricultureinnovationsystemtoturntheseaspirationsintostronglong-termsectorplansforachievingth

76、emoredesirablefutureoutcomesandavoidingthelessdesirableonesforAustralianfarmingsystemsby2050.xAg2050ScenariosReportRegionsAregionalshiftwillenablewell-connectedandvibrantregionalcommunitiesthatofferqualityjobs,lifestyleamenities,education,andotherservices.Targetin

77、vestmentininfrastructuremapandassessregionalcentrestoidentifypotentialforgrowthandinvestmentfromagricultureandothersectors,tosupportothercentresthatareatriskofmarginalisationandfindnewwaystoconnectandengagecity-basedcommunitiesbetterwithagriculture.Leveragemi

78、xedlanduseopportunitiesharnesslandusemixesthatleveragetheenergytransitionandallowformorediverseincomestreamsandqualityjobsinregionalareas,adoptingrelevantbestpracticefromoverseasaroundgoodplanningandinvestmentdecisions.Whole-of-systemAwhole-of-systemshiftwillm

79、eantheagriculturalsystemhastheplanningandinvestmenttoachievestepchangestowardslong-termtransformation.Renewstrategyguidelinesbuildonavailablestrategicplanningandforsightingtools,suchasthefuturescenarioscontainedinthisreport,toenableindustry,researchorganisationsa

80、ndgovernmenttodevelopeffectivestrategyandstandardevaluationframeworksinresponsetotransformationalandcross-commoditypriorities.RestructuringtheagriculturalR&Dsystemidentify,evaluateandimplementthestrategy,structures,interactions,fundingmodels,rolesandresponsibilitiesacros

81、sAustralianagricultureinnovationneededforeffectiveresponsestocross-sectorchallengesandopportunities.StrengthenrelationshipsanddialoguewithAboriginalandTorresStraitIslanderpartnersincorporateIndigenousledco-designandresearchintothedevelopmentofopportunitiesandre-eng

82、agewithtraditionalmethodstoadvancesustainablefarmingpractices.Productive,resilientandsustainablefarmingsystemsin2050Ultimately,achievingthemostoptimisticfutureisplausibleifsignificantactionistakenbyAustralianagriculture.Thiswillrequirelong-termstrategicplanningacrosst

83、hefundamentalshifts:climateadaptation,landandseas,industry,andregions.Theexpertise,experienceandenergyneededtoachievethemorepositiveoutcomesdescribedinthisreportextendbeyondanysingleorganisation.Effectiveandurgentcollaborativeeffortisneededfrombothpublicandprivatese

84、ctororganisations.Overthenextfewyears,theAg2050programwillcontinuetoiteratetheseinitialfuturescenariosthroughmodellingandconsultationtoinformthepolicyandresearchanddevelopment(R&D)actionsrequiredbyindustryandgovernmenttofacilitateapreferablefuture.xiGlossaryAbsol

85、uteemissionsReferstothetotalamountofgreenhousegasesemittedintotheatmospherefromaspecificsectororactivityoveraspecificperiod(tonnesCO2eq).AgShortreferencetoagriculture.AgricultureThepracticeofcultivatingsoil,raisinglivestockforfood,fibreandotherproducts.Includesfi

86、sheryandforestryindustries.AgritechModerntools,technologies,businessmodelsandfarmingpracticesinagriculturetoenhanceandoptimiseagriculturalactivities.AIArtificialintelligence.Ageneral-purposetechnologythatusesdata-drivenalgorithmstoautonomouslysolveproblemsandperformtask

87、swithoutexplicithumanguidance.Includesmachinelearning,computervision,naturallanguageprocessing,roboticsanddeeplearning.AlienspeciesNon-nativeorganismsintroducedbyhumans(intentionallyoraccidentally)toanecosystem,regionorcountryoutsideoftheirusualhabitats.AquacultureTherear

88、ingofaquaticanimalsorthecultivationofaquaticplantsforfood.ArablelandLandcapableofproducingagriculturalcrops.ASEANAssociationofSoutheastAsianNationsBiotechnologyDescribestheprocessofusinglivingthingstocreateorchangeproducts.Bio-economyLeveragingbiologicalresourcesf

89、orthedevelopmentofgoodsandservices.CarbonsequestrationAnaturalorartificialprocessbywhichcarbondioxideisremovedfromtheatmosphereandheldinsolidorliquidform(i.e.capturedbysoilsorseas).CirculareconomyAregenerativeproductionconsumptionsysteminwhichinputsandoutputs

90、areminimised.ClimateadaptationProcessofmodifyingagriculturalandnaturalsystemstomitigatethenegativeimpactsofclimatechange.ClimatemitigationActionstakentoreduceorpreventgreenhousegasemissionsandimpactsfromagricultureonclimatesystems,withthegoalofpreventingfurthercl

91、imatechange.ComplementaryproteinsNon-animal,plant-basedandnovelproteinscreatedfromadvancedbiomanufacturingprocessesusingyeast,fungi,algaeandinsects.CRCsTheCooperativeResearchCentresprogram.AnAustralianGovernmentinitiativestartedinthe1990stofundindustry-ledcollaboration

92、swithresearchersandend-users.EcosystemservicesThebenefitsgainedfromnature,suchasfood,water,airandsoil,thatdirectlyandindirectlycontributetohumanwell-being,survivalandqualityoflife.EmissionsintensityTheamountofgreenhousegasemissionsproducedperunitofproductionactiv

93、ities,measuringhowefficientlyprocessesorindustriesgenerateemissionsrelativetooutput.FarmingsystemAcomplexandinterrelatedsetofagriculturalactivities,practicesandresourcesusedtoproduceagriculturalproducts.Forthisreport,includesforestryandfisheriessystems.FarmerAperson

94、engagedinagricultureorforestry,oftenowningormanagingafarmenterpriserangingfromsmallfamilyfarmstolargecommercialoperations.FisherApersonengagedincommercialfishingoraquaculture.xiiAg2050ScenariosReportFriend-shoringAtradepracticewheresupplychainnetworksarefocusedo

95、ncountriesregardedaspoliticalandeconomicallies,tostrengthenandbuildon-shoreresilience.MarginallandLandthathaslittletonoagriculturalorindustrialvalue.MixedfarmingThecombinationofdifferenttypesofagriculturalactivity,oftencropsandlivestock,withinasinglefarminsteado

96、fspecialisinginonetypeofcroporlivestockatanyonetime.NetemissionsTheamountofgreenhousegasemissionsconsideringtheremovalofsuchgasesduringadefinedperiod.Non-arablelandLandnotsuitableforcropproduction,includingmeadows,pasturesandwoodyvegetation.NTMsNon-tariffmeasur

97、es.Policymeasures,otherthancustomsduties,usedtoregulateandcontrolimportsandexports,includingregulations,standards,licensingrequirementsandquotas.OECDTheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentProducerAnindividualorentitythatproducesagriculturalproductsfromfarmin

98、g,forestry,aquacultureetc.Unlikefarmer,producerreferstobothlandandsea-basedactivities.RDCsRuralresearchanddevelopmentcorporationsR&DResearchanddevelopmentSeasSaltwatersourcescoveringtheearth(i.e.oceansandseas).SPSSanitaryandphytosanitarymeasuresSustainableintensificationTh

99、eprocessorsystemofincreasingagriculturalyieldswithoutadverseenvironmentalimpactsandwithoutconversionofadditionalland.TotalfactorproductivityAmeasureofhowefficientlyoutputsareproducedusinginputs.WatersInlandwatersincludingrivers,creeks,undergroundsourcesandlakes.xii

100、ixivAg2050ScenariosReport1IntroductionTheAg2050ScenariosReportexploressignificanttrends,risksandopportunitiestoidentifythekeyshiftsandactionsneededtosupportAustralianfarmingsystemsintothefuture.Itseekstoanswerthequestion:whatcouldAustralianfarmingsystemslooklik

101、etobeproductive,resilientandsustainablein2050ThisreportcombinesresearchbyCSIROwithinputfromleadersandorganisationsacrosstheAustralianagricultureindustry,researchandgovernmentsectorstodevelopasetofevidence-based,plausiblescenariosforwhatAustralianfarmingsystemsc

102、ouldlooklikein2050.ThisreportanditsscenariosaimtomotivatefurtherdiscussiononsecuringAustralianagricultureslong-termprosperity.TheimperativeforAustralianagricultureAgricultureinAustraliahasseenseveralyearsofrelativelyhighyieldandprofitabilitybenefittingfromanem

103、phasisonadaptationandleadinginnovation.However,therearesomekeylong-termthreatstofarmproductivity,resilienceandsustainabilitythatarealreadyimpactingthefarming,fisheriesandforestrysystems.Climatechangeisgrowingasasignificantthreatasweatherconditionsandnaturaldisast

104、ersbecomemorefrequentordisastrous,exacerbatingbiodiversitylossandenvironmentaldegradation.Theagricultureandlandsectorsmayprovideeffectivesolutionstosupportotherindustriesinachievinglong-termnet-zerotargets.Uncertaintyinthelong-termgeopoliticaloutlookisgrowingasat

105、hreattoAustraliasexport-orientatedagriculturalindustries.RecentgeopoliticalshocksfromtheUkraineRussiawarandCOVID-19areexamplesoftherisksposedtothesupplyofkeyinputssuchasfertilisersandpesticidesandtokeytraderelationships.2CSIRO(2021)Labourimpactsonagriculture.(a

106、ccessedMarch2024).3AustralianBureauofAgriculturalandResourceEconomics(ABARES)(2021)Growthjuggernaut:threebillionempoweredconsumers.(accessedMarch2024).4AustralianFarmInstitute(AFI)(2019)Submission:perspectivesongrowingagriculturetoa$100billionindustryby2030.(accessedMarch

107、2024).EvenbeforeCOVID-19,thesectorfacedconstrainedlabouravailability.2AsthemedianageoftheAustraliaagriculturalworkforcecontinuestorise,barrierstoentryofdiverseandskilledworkerswillexacerbatetheexistinglabourgapandimpactinnovationandadoptionofnewtechnologies,a

108、swellasthelong-termproductivityofthesector.RisingincomesinAsiawillshiftdemandandexpectationsforAustraliasfoodandfibreexports.Thesectoriswellpositionedtobenefit,especiallyfromgrowingdemandforproteins.Challengesmayarise,however,inmaintainingtrustandreputationfor

109、Australianproduceandrespondingtochangesinconsumerdemandintimetomaintainfavourablemarketaccess.3Innovationtimelinesforagriculturearelongandthenetproductiongainof24%perannumoverthepast20yearswillnotbeenoughtomaintainacompetitivepositioninkeyexportmarkets

110、norachieveshortertermindustrygrowthtargets.4Astepchangeinthepaceofinnovationisneeded.1Australiawillneedtotransformitscurrentfarmingsystemstorespondtothesecomplexandlong-termchallengesanddeliveragainstthesustainability,productivityandprofitabilityneedsof2050.

111、Australianfarmingsystemsarecomplexandinterconnected.Theycoversoil,water,crops,livestock,machinery,energy,labour,capitalandotherinputsandareinfluencedbyarangeofothersystemssuchaspolitical,economic,institutionalandsocialsystems.Thisreportconsidersland-basedfarmingsystems

112、aswellasaquaculture,forestryandfisheries.Thesesystemsarecriticalcomponentsofwiderandequallycomplexdomesticandglobalagrifoodsystemsthatconnectproductiontoconsumption.Overthepastdecades,farmingsystemsinAustraliahavebecomehighlyefficientandgloballycompetitive.Austr

113、aliasresearchandinnovationcapabilitieshavebeenasignificantcontributortothisgrowthandprosperity.$2.3billionwasinvestedinagricultureresearchanddevelopment(R&D)in202223.Thisincluded$1.3billioninpublicfundingand$1billioninprivatefunding,5with$500millioninlevypayments

114、madebyagricultureindustries.6ThismoneygoestowardsAustralianandstategovernmententities,includingCSIRO,universities,RuralResearchandDevelopmentCorporations(RDCs)andCooperativeResearchCentres(CRCs)andtheprivatesector.TheRuralRDCVision2050reportandtheEYAgriculturalInnov

115、ationreportsuggestthatanimportantfeatureofAustraliasagriculturalR&Dsystemisthatitwasnotestablishedasacoherentsystembutdevelopedthroughacollectionofinterconnectedandindependentlymanagedcomponents,eachfollowingavarietyofstrategicprioritiestofund,facilitateandd

116、eliverR&D.7Thishasledtosiloedanddisjointedinnovationandfundingfocusedoncommoditygroupsandshort-ormedium-termtargets.Strengthenedcapacityisneededacrosstheagriculturalindustriestoadaptandtransforminresponsetogrowinguncertaintyandriskinagloballychangingworld.To

117、prepareformultiplefuturescenarios,itwillbeimportanttorebalanceandalignthecurrentAustralianagricultureinnovationsystemaroundcross-sectoral,long-termchallengesandopportunities.Todefineandleadthisindustrytransformation,awhole-of-systemcoordinatedapproachacrossthebread

118、thofresearchandinnovationthatappliestofarmingsystemsisneeded.ThisreportdoesnotpredictwhatAustralianfarmingsystemswilllooklikein2050nordoesitproposeasinglefuturevisionfortheAustralianagricultureinnovationsystem.Instead,itaimstomotivateconversationsbetweenin

119、dustry,researchersandgovernmentonwhatactionsareneededtosecureadesirablefutureforAustralianfarmingsystems.Theoverallgoalistoexpandthescopeandurgencyofcollaborativeandstrategicthinkingonawhole-of-systemplanforeffectivetransformativechangeoftheAustralianagricul

120、tureinnovationsystem.ReportmethodologyThisreportwasdevelopedusingahighlycollaborativeapproachthatcombinedinputfromparticipantsofaco-designworkshopserieswithaliteraturereviewandscenarioanalysis(Figure1).AlthoughthesescenarioswillhaveimplicationsacrossAustraliasag

121、rifoodvaluechains,includingfoodprocessingandmanufacturing,thescopeofthisreportispre-farmgate.AstheinitialphaseoftheAg2050program,thefuturescenariosinthisreportarepresentedqualitatively.Itisacknowledgedthatquantitativeassessment,modellingandtestingareessentialste

122、pstofurthervalidateandrefinethesescenarios.Bysharingqualitativeinsightsfirst,thisreportaimstoshowcasethediverseviewsandcreativethinkingofstakeholdersinvolvedintheproject.Thisapproachnotonlyfosterstransparencybutalsoinvitescollaborationandfeedbackfromawiderra

123、ngeoforganisationsandexperts.Sharingthisreportpriortoconductingquantitativeanalysisallowsconversationstobegin,layingthegroundworkforcollaborativeeffortsastheAg2050programmovesforwardwiththequantitativephaseofscenariotestinganddownscaling.5ABARES(2023)Agricultural

124、researchanddevelopmentinvestmentinAustralia:20222023update.(accessed20February2024).6DepartmentofAgriculture,FisheriesandForestry(DAFF).Aboutleviesandthelevysystem.(accessed20February2024).7Ernst&Young(EY)(2019)Agriculturalinnovation:anationalapproachtogrowAustraliasfut

125、ure.(accessed8February2024);RuralRDC(2018)Vision2050.(accessed8February2024).2Ag2050ScenariosReportFigure1:Co-designmethodologyAbroadhorizonscan,includingliteraturereviewandconsultationswitharangeofexpertsandstakeholders,wasusedtoidentifyglobalandnationalforcesmega

126、trends,factorsandinfluencesthatwouldimpactthefutureofagriculture.Inearlyworkshops,participantsfurtherdevelopedtheseforces,initiallybrainstormingover100ideasandultimatelydevelopingthemintoasetof14drivers.Thesewerecategorisedunderfivebroadareas:globalcontext,environ

127、mentandclimate,landandwater,innovationandproductivity,andtradeandmarketaccess.ManyofthedriversareinternalforcesthatAustralianagriculturecaninfluence.Buttherearealsoexternalforces,particularlythedriversincludedunderglobalcontext,thatareoutsidethecontrolofthesect

128、or.Thereissomeoverlapandinterconnectednessofdriversandtheyarenotmutuallyexclusive.ThesedriverswillshapethedirectionandspeedofchangeacrossAustralianfarmingsystemsto2050andarethefoundationalpillarsofthefuturescenariosinthisreport.Therearevariousoutcomesthed

129、riversmayleadtoby2050.Twoormorecontrastingandalternativeoutcomesweredevelopedforeachdrivertoalignwithrelevanttrends.Theseoutcomesweretestedanditeratedbasedonrecentliterature,participantguidanceandtheassistanceofinternalresearchersfromCSIRO.Thedriveroutcomesw

130、erecombinedintologicalgroupingstoconstructaninitialsetofover30scenariosthatdescribedarangeofplausiblefuturesforAustralianfarmingsystems.Co-designworkshopseriesLiteraturereviewFirstroundconsultationsRefinetofourscenariosSecondroundconsultationsReviews,reportdrafting

131、BrainstormkeydriversandinfluencingfactorsRefineanddefinetotopprioritiesDefineplausibleandcontrastingoutcomesIdeatefuturescenarios,signpostsandimplications1234Throughfurtherco-designworkshopsandconsultations,thescenarioswereiteratedandrefinedtoafinalsetoffourscenario

132、sthatparticipantsconsideredbestexploredvaluablecontrastsandtrade-offs.TheoutcomesandimplicationsofthefuturescenariosweredevelopedwithparticipantguidanceandCSIROresearchusingpublishedliterature,recenttrendsandconsultations.Itshouldbenotedthatalthoughthefinalfour

133、futurescenariosincludedinthisreportcoverawiderangeofplausibleoutcomes,theyarenotmutuallyexclusivenorexhaustiveofthepossibilitiestherearelikelymanyotherplausiblefutures.ThisreportinvolvedCSIROresearch,includingtheAustralianNationalOutlook,StateoftheClimaterepor

134、tandtheOurFutureWorldreport,inputfromtheDepartmentofAgriculture,FisheriesandForestry,policymakersandparticipantstoidentifyhowtheresearchcommunityandindustrycouldfullyusethesescenariosandachievethemoredesirableandavoidthelessdesirableoutcomespresentedinthesc

135、enarios.Thisledtoasetofinitialactionareas,includingbuildinguponexistinginitiatives,whichwouldberequiredtoidentifyandpursuethefutureAustraliawantsforitsfarmingsystems.Theseactionareasformthebasisofthefiveshiftsdescribedinthisreport.3EngagingAboriginalandTorr

136、esStraitIslanderpeoplesWherepossible,furtherdetailonintegratingAboriginalandTorresStraitIslanderopportunitieswillbedrawnoutinfutureworkaspartoftheAg2050program.TheprogramaimstoensurethattheopportunityforcollaborationtoincorporateIndigenousknowledgeandlandman

137、agementpracticesintofuturefarmingsystemsisadequatelyexploredandalignswiththegoalsandobjectivesoflocalIndigenouscommunitygroups.Assuch,theprogramisaddressingthisthroughanin-depthnetworkanalysisandcollaborativeprocesstoestablishanIndigenous-ledSteeringCommittee.De

138、liveredundertheleadershipofanIndigenousResearchScientist,thisinitiativewilltakearelationship-firstapproach,wherebuildingtrustandunderstandingwithIndigenouspartnersistherunwayforallsubsequentactivities.FurtherengagementactivitieswithAboriginalandTorresStraitIslande

139、rleadersandorganisations,includinggrassrootsorganisationsfromacrossCountry,willbedesignedtoencouragetwo-waylearningbetweenCSIROandIndigenouspartners.Adata-sharingframeworkwillbeco-developedwiththeIndigenous-ledSteeringCommitteeandwithsupportfromexistingCSIROresearc

140、hinthisspace.Tocontributetothisprocess,emailAg2050csiro.au.Aswemoveforward,wepledgetocommitoureffortstobridgethesegaps.WewillstriveforanapproachthatnotonlyreachesoutbutalsoresonateswithAboriginalandTorresStraitIslanderpeoples,fosteringmeaningfulcollaboration

141、forthebenefitofcurrentandfuturegenerations.ThiscommitmentisfundamentaltotheintegrityandsuccessoftheAg2050Initiative.DuringthepreliminaryphaseofAg2050,weidentifiedgapsinourengagementefforts.WespecificallyacknowledgetheabsenceofAboriginalandTorresStraitIslander

142、voicesinourinitialdiscussions.Itisclearthataone-size-fits-allapproachtostakeholderengagementisinsufficient.EngagingmeaningfullywithAboriginalandTorresStraitIslanderpeoplesrequiresdedicatedtimeandculturallycentredmethodologies.Weacknowledgewithrespectthevitalcontri

143、butionsofAboriginalandTorresStraitIslanderpeoples,whoseIndigenouswaysofknowing,beinganddoinghavenurturedCountryforthousandsofyears.TheAg2050InitiativeiskeenlyawareoftheimportanceofthesetraditionsinshapingasustainablefutureforagricultureandfoodsystemsinAustra

144、lia.Inlinewiththis,wearecommittedtotheprinciplesofCaringforCountry,bolsteringeconomicstrengthandenhancingfoodsecurityandnutritionwithinAboriginalandTorresStraitIslandercommunities.ThisintentionrecognisesthatweareonajourneywithAboriginalandTorresStraitIslander

145、partnersandthatthescenariosoutlinedinourreportarestartingpointsfordeeperdialoguetoexploretheirpivotalroleinfosteringsustainableagriculturalpractices.WeunderstandthatincorporatingIndigenous-ledco-designisessentialforajustandeffectivedevelopmentoftheseopportunit

146、ies.TheresanestablishedandgrowingfieldofIndigenous-ledresearchadvocatingforare-engagementwiththesetraditionalmethodstoadvancesustainablefarmingacrossAustralia.Indigenousagriculturaltechniques,honedovertensofthousandsofyearsconnectingland,sea,sky,waterwaysandcultural

147、laws,canofferinvaluableinsightsintoplanningforthefuturewithourAg2050program.4Ag2050ScenariosReportHowtoreadthisreport3.Finally,explorethefivefundamentalshiftsAustralianeedstomaketoidentifyandpursuethefutureitwantsforitsfarmingsystemsinChapter4Consideration

148、s.Fiveshiftsweredeveloped,drawingoninsightsfromtheco-designworkshopsandCSIROsresearch:climateadaptation,landandwater,industry,regionsandwhole-of-systemchange.Asetofactionareaswasdefinedforeachfundamentalshift.Theseactionareasarenotexhaustive,buthelptoarticulateth

149、einitialchanges,assumptionstestingandinitiativesrequired.Ultimately,achievingthemostoptimisticfutureisplausibleforAustralianagriculture.However,itwillrequiresignificanteffort,collaborationandactionacrossthepublicandprivatesectors.Thisreportstartsbypresentingthekeyna

150、tionalandglobalforcesimpactingthefutureofAustralianfarmingsystems.Theplausibleoutcomesofthesekeydriversofchangeformthefoundationalpillarsofthefourfuturescenariospresentedlaterinthereport.1.Startbydivingintothenationalandglobalforcesthatwillimpactthefuture

151、ofAustralianfarmingsystemsinChapter2PrioritiesforAustralianagriculture.Theseforcescoverfiveoverarchingareas:theglobalcontext,environmentandclimate,landandwater,productivityandinnovation,andtradeandmarketaccess.Thedirection,paceandplausiblefutureoutcomesofthesetrend

152、sandforceswillshapeAustraliasfarmingsystemsoutto2050.2.Next,immerseyourselfinthefourcontrastingfuturescenariosinChapter3Futurescenarios.Thesescenariosareevidence-basedandplausibleexplorationsofwhatAustralianfarmingsystemscouldlooklikeby2050.Althoughsomemayhav

153、emoredesirableelementsthanothers,itisimportanttonotethatthereisnoonepreferredfuturescenarioandeveryscenariopresentstrade-offs.WhatispossibleforAustralianfarmingiftheagricultureinnovationsystemachievesitsfullpotentialScenario1RegionalAgcapitalsScenario2Land

154、scapestewardshipWhatcanbeachievedwithincrementalinnovationandproactiveclimateadaptationScenario3ClimatesurvivalWhatifagriculturefailstoeffectivelyrespondtothechallengesandneedsof2050Scenario4SystemdeclineEachscenariocontainskeysignpostsandimplications.Signposts

155、aretheuniquetrends,eventsorsignalsthatcouldindicatethesectorisonapathwaytothefuturedescribedinthescenarios.Implicationshighlightthekeytrade-offsandconsequencesofeachscenario.5Thisreportpresentsfourscenarios:RegionalAgcapitalsandLandscapestewardshipinwhichfa

156、rmingsystemstransformindifferentwaystoreachnewheightsofpotential;Climatesurvivalinwhichsystemssuccessfullyadaptandproduceinthefaceofclimatechange;andSystemdeclineinwhichsystemsfailtobuildresiliencetoexternalfactors.Therearethreemainpointstoconsideracrosst

157、hesefuturescenarios.Thevalueinthesescenariosisnotindetermininganoptimalfuture,butinunderstandingtheimplicationsofsettingdifferentprioritiesandtheassociatedtradeoffs:Eachofthescenariospresentsamixofdesirableandlessdesirablecomponents.Consideredtogether,thescenar

158、ioscanhelpidentifyvariouspotentialkeyrolesfortheAustralianagriculturesectorintothefuture,developproactiveactionsneededtopursuemorepositivefutureoutcomesandidentifytheno-regretactionsneededtoavoidtheimpactsofalessdesirablefuture.Thefutureofagriculturemaybe

159、acombinationofthefourscenarios,dependingontheregional,industryandglobalcontext,andtheextentofactionstakenbythesector.Butitisthetrade-offswithinthesescenariosthatcanfacilitatericherdecision-makingonwhichfuturetheagriculturesectorwantstopursue.Thesectorcanach

160、ievepositivefutureoutcomesdespiteglobaluncertainties:ThefutureofAustralianagriculturewillbeaffectedbyexternalglobalforcesoutsideitscontrol.Thesector,however,cancontrolhowitrespondstotheglobalcontexttoimprovetheoutcomesforfarmingsystems.Stakeholdersthatparticipat

161、edinthedevelopmentofthisreportexpectglobaluncertaintyandvolatilitytocontinuetorisebetweennowand2050.Tomakethescenariosmoremanageable,testableandcomparable,allscenariosaresetinthesameglobalcontext.Althoughotherglobalcontextsareplausible,thefuturescenariospres

162、entedinthisreportareastartingpointforconsideringhowfarmingsystemsareimpactedbyavarietyofglobalfactors.Theproductivity,resilience,andsustainabilityofAustralianagriculturecanandmustbestrengthened,whichrequiresimmediateactionandlongtermplanning:Achievingthemorepos

163、itiveoutcomesdescribedinthisreportisbeyondthescopeofanysingleorganisation.Itwillrequiresignificantexpertise,experience,energyandacollaborativeeffortacrossbothpublicandprivatesectororganisations.Thisreportdoesnotaddresseverytrend,challengeorplausiblefuture,noroff

164、erallthesolutions.Instead,itaimstomotivatediscussionandidentifyquestionsforfurtherresearchanddiscussion.Threepointstoconsiderthroughoutthisreport6Ag2050ScenariosReport2PrioritiesforAustralianagricultureThepastsuccessesofAustralianagricultureandseveralrecentyears

165、ofhighyieldsandprofitabilityconcealthedisruptionAustralianfarmingsystemsfacenowandinthefuture.MultipleglobalandnationalforcesimpactAustralianfarmingandfisheriessystems.Theseforcesarecomplexandinterconnected.Togethertheyareescalatingrisktothelong-termproductivi

166、ty,resilienceandsustainabilityoftheagriculturesector.YettheyalsocreateopportunitiesforAustralianagriculturetoinnovatefarmingsystems,developnewsourcesofgrowth,protectandrestoreAustraliasnaturalresourcesandensurethelong-termviabilityofthesector.Throughaliteraturere

167、viewandanextensiveconsultationperiod,expertsandstakeholdersviewedfiveoverarchingareasascriticalprioritiesforAustralianagriculture:globalcontextenvironmentandclimatelandandwaterproductivityandinnovationtradeandmarketaccess.Acrossthesefiveareas,14driversofchangewe

168、redeveloped,coveringthebreadthoffactorsandtrendsinfluencingAustralianfarmingsystems(Figure2).ThepaceanddirectionofthesedriverswillimpactthefutureoutcomesforAustralianfarmingandfisheriessystemsto2050.Thischapterprovidesanoverviewofthesedriversandthechallenges

169、andsectoralopportunitiestheymaybring.Figure2:ThefivepriorityareasandtheassociateddriversofchangeAlthoughtheagriculture,forestryandfisheriesindustriesfacesimilarthreats,theimpactsofthesethreatscanvary,particularlyforfisheriesandaquaculture.Forspecificinsightsintoh

170、owthesedriversimpactfisheriesandaquaculture,seeBox1.GlobalcontextGeopoliticaluncertaintyGlobalclimateactionConsumerdemandPriorityareasDriversEnvironmentandclimateLandandwaterProductivityandinnovationTradeandmarketaccessClimatechangeadaptationAgriculturesectoremissionsredu

171、ctionNaturalresourceandlandscapestewardshipLandandseausecompetitionandvalueProductionmixandintensityWateraccessanduseTechnologydrivenproductivityHumancapitalIntegrationandconsolidationTradebarriersTraderelationships7GlobalcontextAustraliasabilitytosecurecriticalagricul

172、turalinputsandtoexportproduceissusceptibletoexternalglobalforces,includingglobalclimateaction,consumerdemandsandgeopoliticaluncertainty.Australiaisrecognisedgloballyasaproducerofhigh-quality,safefoodandfibre,andasignificantcontributortoglobalfoodsecurity.Agricultu

173、reinAustraliaisheavilyexport-orientatedandtheshiftsanddemandsoftheexportmarketgreatlyinfluenceAustralianproducers.Exportsaccountfor72%ofthetotalvalueofagriculture,includingforestryandfisheries,representing11.6%oftotalgoodsandservicesexported.8Recentimpactsfromt

174、heCOVID-19pandemicandtheUkraineRussiawarhavehighlightedthesusceptibilityoftheAustralianagriculturesectortoglobalfluctuationsanddisruptions.9Howtheagriculturalindustries,andAustraliamorebroadly,respondtoglobalforcesiscriticalforthelong-termprofitability,sustainabil

175、ityandresilienceofAustralianfarmingsystems.Human-inducedglobalwarminghascausedAustraliasclimatetowarmbyanaverageof1.4Csincenationalrecordsbeganin1910,10withsurroundingoceantemperaturesalsoincreasing.ThelatestUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammereportshowsthatdesp

176、itenumerousworldwideinitiatives,11itislikelythatglobalwarmingwillexceed1.5C.Asstatedinthe2022IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangereport,globalpathwaysthatlimitglobalwarmingto1.5Coreven2Cinvolvealmostimmediatereductionsingreenhousegasemissionsacrossallsecto

177、rs.12MitigatingfurtherwarmingofAustraliasclimatedependsgreatlyoneffectiveandequitableglobalcollaborationthatdeliversrapidandsustainedtransformationacrossallsectors.Anincreasingglobalpopulationandagrowingmiddleclassareshiftingthedemandprofileofagricultureexport

178、marketsandthepreferencesthatexportersmustmeettoremaincompetitive.Thetotalglobalfooddemandisexpectedtoincreaseby3556%between2010and2050.13Atthesametime,ariseinaverageglobalincomesisexpectedtoaddover3billionnewmiddle-classconsumersby2050,14primarilyinAsia

179、.15Asconsumersbecomewealthierindevelopingnations,theirdietsarediversifying16andtheyaredemandingpremium,sustainableandhealthyfoodsatacompetitiveprice.Geopoliticaluncertaintyincreasesasglobaleconomicandpoliticalrelationshipsbecomemorecomplexandvolatile.Thecurrent,dy

180、namicmultipolarworldisdominatedbysevenglobalpowers:theUnitedStates,China,India,theEuropeanUnion,Brazil,IndonesiaandRussia.Togethertheyaccountforovertwo-thirdsofglobaleconomicactivity.17Astheypursuetheirinterests,theyaredisruptingthepreviouscertaintiesoftherules-ba

181、sedinternationalorder.Tobuildresiliencetotheseshiftinggeopoliticalsettings,Australianproducersarelookingtoincreasediversificationofagriculturalexportpartners(seeTradeandmarketaccess).AustraliaisalreadyseeinganincreasingvalueofexportstotheMiddleEast,AfricaandtheA

182、SEANregioncomparedtorecentyears(Figure3).Theriskforcountries,includingAustralia,innavigatingtheirrelationshipswiththesegrowingpowersisbecomingincreasinglycomplex.188ABARES(2023)SnapshotofAustralianAgriculture2023.ABARESInsights,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December202

183、3).9NaughtinC,HajkowiczS,SchleigerE,BratanovaA,CameronA,ZaminT,DuttaA(2022)OurFutureWorld:GlobalMegatrendsImpactingtheWayWeLiveOverComingDecades.CSIROPublishing,Brisbane,Australia.10CSIROandBureauofMeteorology(BOM)(2022)StateoftheClimate.Australia:GovernmentofAustralia.(

184、accessed13March2024).11UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(2023)EmissionsGapReport2023:BrokenrecordTemperatureshitnewhighs,yetworldfailstocutemissions(again),Nairobi.(accessed12December2023).12IPCC(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange)(2023)AR6SynthesisReportClimateCha

185、nge2023.(accessed12December2023).13VanDijkM,MorleyT,RauML(2021)Ameta-analysisofprojectedglobalfooddemandandpopulationatriskofhungerfortheperiod2010-2050.Naturefood2,494-501.(accessed23January2024).14Hatfield-DoddsS,HajkowiczS,EadyS(2020)StocktakeofMegatrendsShapin

186、gAustralianAgriculture:2021Update.ABARES,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023).15HafiA,ParkerJ,FellJ,DuverA,AddaiD(2023)WhatAsiawants:long-termagrifooddemandinAsia(2023revision).ABARESResearchReport23.10,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023).16HerforthA,AhmedS

187、(2015)Thefoodenvironment,itseffectsondietaryconsumption,andpotentialformeasurementwithinagriculture:nutritioninterventions.FoodSection(7),505520.(accessed12December2023).17Hatfield-Doddsetal.(2020)StocktakeofMegatrendsShapingAustralianAgriculture:2021Update.ABARES,Canberra,A

188、ustralia.(accessed12December2023).18Hatfield-Doddsetal.(2020)StocktakeofMegatrendsShapingAustralianAgriculture:2021Update.ABARES,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023).8Ag2050ScenariosReportFigure3:AustralianexportshaveincreasedtotheMiddleEast,AfricaandtheASEANregi

189、onNotes:FigureshowstheexportvalueofAustralianagriculture,fisheriesandforestrybydestinationbetween2018and2021.ThecategoryASEANcomprisesthe10memberstatesandEastTimor.19ChallengesAlackofglobalactionandcollaborationtocurbglobalwarmingwillleadtonumerousimpactson

190、Australiasclimateandenvironment,includingtheexpansionofpestsanddiseases,increasingbiosecurityrisks,marineheatwavesandanincreaseinextremefireweather.20Withoutasignificantreductioninglobalgreenhousegasemissions,Australianfarmscouldfaceglobalwarmingscenariosofover2Cb

191、y2050.21Althoughfarmersinsomeregionsmayderiveshort-termgainsfromincreasingtemperatures,inthelongterm,Australianfarms,theecosystemservicestheydependonandregionalcommunitieswillbeunderincreasingstresstonavigateandadapttomorefrequentorextremeweatherevents.22Int

192、ensifiedcompetitionforresourcessuchasarablelandandwateraccessrightsmaydriveupthepriceoflandandwaterandthis,inturn,candamagetheviabilityandprofitabilityoffarms.23Theseimpactsthreatenfarmingandfisheriessystemsandwilllikelyincreasecostsassociatedwithclimate

193、adaptationandplanning(seeEnvironmentandclimate).24Consumertrendsandstringenttraderequirementswilldictatefarmingsystemsactionsaroundsustainabilityandwelfare,biosecurityandtraceabilitytoremaincompetitive.25Thesectorwillneedtobuildandstrengthenaglobalgreenandclean

194、brandtomeetthepreferencesoftheincreasinglywealthymiddle-classpopulationsinAsia.26Australiahasastrongenvironmentalsustainabilityrecord,includingefficientuseofpesticidesandfertilisers,low-tillagepracticesandbelow-averageemissionintensitiesforseveralcommoditygroupscom

195、paredtomajordevelopedcountryproducers.27Maintainingacompetitivesustainableandhealthybrandwillrequireproactivelyrespondingtothechangingclimatebycollaboratingandinvestinginmitigationandadaptationefforts,aswellasinvestinginnationalbiosecuritymonitoringandprevention

196、measures.28010203040502017201820192020OthersMiddleEastandAfricaASEANChinaKoreaJapanUSEU28AUDBILLIONS19ABARES(2022)Agriculturalcommoditiesandtradedata.(accessed20January2024).20CSIRO,BOM(2022)StateoftheClimate.Australia:GovernmentofAustralia.(accessed13March2024).21LeeJY,Mar

197、otzkeJ,BalaG,CaoL,CortiS,DunneJP,EngelbrechtF,FischerE,FyfeJC,JonesC,MaycockA,MutemiJ,NdiayeO,PanickalS,ZhouT(2021)Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformation.(accessed24Jan2024);UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(2023)EmissionsGapReport2023:Broke

198、nrecordTemperatureshitnewhighs,yetworldfailstocutemissions(again).Nairobi.(accessed12December2023);MatchesIPCCscenariosforSSP3-7.0.22Naughtinetal.(2022)OurFutureWorld:GlobalMegatrendsImpactingtheWayWeLiveOverComingDecades.CSIRO,Brisbane,Australia.23ABARES(2023)Snapshot

199、ofAustralianAgriculture2023.ABARESInsights,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023);Naughtinetal.(2022)OurFutureWorld:GlobalMegatrendsImpactingtheWayWeLiveOverComingDecades.CSIRO,Brisbane,Australia.24Hatfield-Doddsetal.(2020)StocktakeofMegatrendsShapingAustralianAgricu

200、lture:2021Update.ABARES,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023).25FellJ(2022)AnalysisofAustraliasFutureAgriculturalTradeAdvantage.ABARESInsights,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023);NationalFarmersFederation(NFF)(2018)2030Roadmap:Australianagriculturesplanfora$100b

201、illionindustry.Australia.(accessed12December2023).26NFF(2018)2030Roadmap:Australianagriculturesplanfora$100billionindustry.Australia.(accessed12December2023).27ReadA,RollanJ,CreedC,FellJ(2023)SustainabilityandAgri-environmentalIndicators:InternationalComparisons.ABARESInsigh

202、ts,Issue2,Canberra,Australia.(accessed13March2024).28Hatfield-Doddsetal.(2020)StocktakeofMegatrendsShapingAustralianAgriculture:2021Update.ABARES,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023).9Atanationallevel,governmentandindustryrepresentativeswillbechallengedwithnegotiati

203、ngandcooperatingwithvariousglobalpartnerstostabilisesupplychainsandmaintainaccesstokeyexportmarkets.29Escalatingprotectionistpoliciesandavolatilegeopoliticalcontextweakeneconomiccooperationandtradeliberalisation.30Ongoingdisruptionsandunpredictability,drivenbygeo

204、politicalconflicts,canimpactmajortradeandsupplychainroutes,31whichinturncanlimitAustralianfarmersaccesstocrucialagriculturalinputssuchasfertilisersandchemicals,leadingtolowercropyieldsandexportpotential.32ItcanalsohindertheabilityofAustralianagriculturalexpo

205、rterstodelivertheirgoodsusingtimelyandefficientfreight,subsequentlyimpactingprofitmarginsandproductintegrity.33OpportunitiesAustraliacannotdirectlyinfluencethepaceorsuccessofglobalactiononclimatechange.Itcan,however,strivetowardsreducingitsowncontributiontoglobal

206、warmingthroughnetzerostrategies.AcrosstheAustralianeconomy,science,innovationandstrategyarealreadydrivingchanges.34Theagriculturesectorhasopportunitiesavailabletoindirectlyinfluencethedirectionofglobalclimateaction,includingsupportingthegrowthoflow-carbonexportind

207、ustriessuchassustainableaviationfuels,participatinginlow-waste,circularfoodsystems,anddecarbonisingheavyfreighttransportfurtherdownthesupplychain.35Reducingandsequesteringemissions,andrestoringenvironments,provideadditionalopportunitiestotargetproductstoenvironmentally

208、consciousconsumers(seeTradeandmarketaccess).36Byunderstandingtheshiftingpreferencesofthegrowingmiddle-classpopulationsinAsiaandrespondingintime,thesectorcansecureitspositionasasupplierofhigh-qualityfoodandfibregoodstothesehigh-valueexportmarkets.Forexample,to

209、meetthegrowingdemandforproteins,Australianproducershaveanopportunitytosupplycomplementaryproteinstomiddle-classconsumers.37Therapidlygrowingcomplementaryproteinmarketisexpectedtogrowby$3.1billionin2030.38Complementaryproteinscanprovideproducersanopportunitytog

210、rowintovalue-addedindustries,withhigherandlessvolatilepricesthancommoditymarkets.However,theextenttowhichthesectorcancapitaliseondemandfromthegrowingmiddleclasswilldepend,inpart,onthesectorsabilitytonavigatenewgeopoliticaluncertaintiesandtomaintainandbuildpo

211、sitivetraderelationshipswithmultipleestablishedandgrowingeconomies.29AustralianGovernmentDepartmentofForeignAffairsandTrade(2023)WorldTradeOrganisation.(accessed12December2023);CSIRO(2019)AustralianNationalOutlook.CSIRO,Canberra.(accessed12December2023);Naughtinetal.(2022

212、)OurFutureWorld:GlobalMegatrendsImpactingtheWayWeLiveOverComingDecades.CSIRO,Brisbane,Australia.30Hatfield-Doddsetal.(2020)StocktakeofMegatrendsShapingAustralianAgriculture:2021Update.ABARES,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023).31CSIRO(2019)AustralianNationalOutlook.C

213、SIRO,Canberra.(accessed12December2023).32GreenvilleJ,CameronA(2022)WheretoNextforAustralianAgricultureABARESInsights,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023).33GreenvilleJ,CameronA(2022)WheretoNextforAustralianAgricultureABARESInsights,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12Dec

214、ember2023);Naughtinetal.(2022)OurFutureWorld:GlobalMegatrendsImpactingtheWayWeLiveOverComingDecades.CSIRO,Brisbane,Australia.34DAFF(2024)Agricultureandlandsectoralplan.(accessed5March2024).35CSIRO(2023)SustainableaviationfuelopportunitiesforAustralia.(accessedMarch2024);

215、CSIRO(2023)ReshapingAustralianfoodsystems.(accessedMarch2024).36FellJ(2022)AnalysisofAustraliasFutureAgriculturalTradeAdvantage.ABARESInsights,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023);Hatfield-Doddsetal.(2020)StocktakeofMegatrendsShapingAustralianAgriculture:2021Update.AB

216、ARES,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023).37LawrenceS(2021)Australianagriculture&alternativeproteins:aviewforthefuture.FoodFrontier,Australia.(accessed12December2023).38AdmassuS,FoxT,HeathR,McRobertK(2020)Thechanginglandscapeofproteinproduction:opportunitiesandchall

217、engesforAustralianagriculture.AgriFutures,AustraliaPublicationNo.20-001.(accessed12March2024).10Ag2050ScenariosReportEnvironmentandclimateAustraliasnaturalenvironmentandclimatearevitalinsustainingtheagriculturalindustriesnowandintothefuture.Today,agriculturefacessignif

218、icantchallengesduetoclimatechange,deterioratingnaturalresourcesandpressurestodecarbonise.Shiftsinrainfallandtemperaturepatternshavebeenshowntoaffectfarmerincomes,withrecentshort-termfavourableconditionsreflectedinrecordprofits.39However,overthepasttwodecades,avera

219、geannualfarmprofitshavereducedbyanestimated23%,withpersistentclimatevariabilitypredictedtodoubletheriskofmeagrefarmreturnscomparedtothepast50years.40Droughts,floods,firesandsealevelsareallincreasingandtropicalcyclonesarebecominglessfrequentbutpotentiallymo

220、reintense.41Toremainproductiveandresilientintothefuture,Australianagriculturefacesthechallengeofbalancingmorediversifiedproductionmethodsandincomesources,contributingtomeetingAustraliasnationalemissionsreductiontargetsandimplementingeffectivemanagementpracticesfor

221、soilhealth,wateraccess,biodiversityandlandrestoration.Between1910and2022,theaverageAustraliantemperatureincreasedby1.4Candsince1970therehasbeena20%and10%reductioninwinterrainfallinsouth-westernAustraliaandsouth-easternAustralia,respectively.42Airpollutionisexpected

222、toworsenasclimatechangecausesgreaternaturalemissionsfromdust,biogenicsourcesandbushfires.43Essentialecosystemservicescontinuetodecline,includingterrestrial,vegetationandfreshwaterecosystems,duetointensecompetition.44Landdegradationandintensivelandusehaveledtoerosi

223、on,acidification,compactionandnutrientdeclineofland,alongwiththelossofbiodiversity.45AustraliahasthehighestrateofspeciesdeclineamongtheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)countries,withtheselossesexpectedtocontinueto2050.46In2023,agriculturecontr

224、ibuted18%toAustraliasnetgreenhousegasemissions,47mostlyarisingfrommethaneandnitrousoxidefromlivestockfeedconsumptionandthedecayorcombustionoflivinganddeadbiomass(Figure4).Overthepast27years,thesectorhasreducedgreenhousegasemissionsintensity(emissionasapropor

225、tionofvalueaddedbythesector)by63%(Figure5),largelyattributedtoadeclineinlivestocknumbersassociatedwithmultipledroughtsacrossAustralia.48Projectionestimatessuggesta3%declineintotalagriculturalemissionsby2035.49Continuingeffortstofurtherreduceemissionsfromagricu

226、lturalactivitiesinvolveinvestmentsincarbonsequestration,complementaryproteinuse,integratedmanagementsystems,low-emissiontechnologies,landusechangesandafederalcommitmenttoachievingnetzeroby2050.5039ABARES(2023)SnapshotofAustralianAgriculture2023.ABARESInsights,Canberra,A

227、ustralia.(accessed12December2023).40HughesN(2021)AnalysisofClimateChangeImpactsandAdaptationonAustralianFarms.DepartmentofAgriculture,WaterandtheEnvironment(DAWE),Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023).41CSIRO,BOM(2022)StateoftheClimate.Australia:GovernmentofAustrali

228、a.(accessed13March2024).42HughesN(2021)AnalysisofClimateChangeImpactsandAdaptationonAustralianFarms.DAWE,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023).43DepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater(DCCEEW)(2021)AustraliaStateoftheEnvironment2021:airquality.(acc

229、essed30January2024).44CresswellID,JankeT,JohnstonEL(2021)Australiastateoftheenvironment2021:overview.IndependentreporttotheAustralianGovernmentMinisterfortheEnvironment,CommonwealthofAustralia,Canberra.(accessed12December2023).45CresswellID,JankeT,JohnstonEL(2021)Austral

230、iastateoftheenvironment2021:Overview.IndependentreporttotheAustralianGovernmentMinisterfortheEnvironment,CommonwealthofAustralia,Canberra.(accessed12December2023).46DCCEEW(2021)AustraliaStateoftheEnvironment2021:Biodiversity.(accessed30January2024).47DCCEEW(2023)Australia

231、sEmissionsProjections2023.DCCEEW,Canberra.(accessed13March2024).48DCCEEW(2023)NationalInventoryReport:2021.(accessed31January2024);NFF(2018)2030Roadmap:AustralianAgriculturesPlanfora$100BillionIndustry.Australia.(accessed12December2023).49DCCEEW(2023)AustraliasEmissionsProje

232、ctions2023.DCCEEW,Canberra.(accessed13March2024).50CommonwealthofAustralia(2023)NationalStatementonClimateChangeandAgriculture.DAFF,Canberra.(accessed12December2023).11Figure4:AbsoluteemissionsinagriculturearedominatedbythelivestocksectorNotes:Figureshowsabsoluteoractua

233、lemissionsintheagriculturesectorbysourcesfortheyear2023.51Livestockandlivestockproducts84%Crops6%Other2%Limeandurea4%Fertilisers4%phytoplankton,challengingAustraliasfishsupply(seeBox1formoreinformationonthefisheriessector).55Thecompoundingeffectofmultipleenviron

234、mentalchangesincreasesthepressureonfarmingsystems.Emissionsintheagriculturesectorarehardtoabate.Someemissionsfromon-farmactivitiesmaybemitigatedbyelectrifyingsmallfarmvehiclesandsomefarmmachineryandswitchingtorenewablefuels,butsolutionstoreduceemissionsfromr

235、uminantlivestockandfertilisersthatsuittheAustralianfarmingcontextareyettobescaledandadopted.Producerswillrequiresupporttonavigatethecostsandknowledgeburdenofimplementingnewprocesses,systemsandequipmenttomitigateon-farmgreenhouseemissionsandtocomplywithglobal

236、reductionpoliciesandconsumerexpectations.Ifthesectordoesnotreduceitsemissions,exportopportunitieswillbeimpactedbythegrowingnumberofimporttariffsonemissions-intensivegoodssuchasredmeat.56OpportunitiesThroughclimatechangeadaptationandnaturalresourceandlandscapes

237、tewardship,thereisanopportunitytoimproveecosystemhealth,protectfarmproductivityandcapitaliseonnewclimate-andservice-relatedindustries.Forexample,thereisanopportunitytoadvanceagriculturalinnovation,improvecropresilienceinextremeclimatesandsafeguardcommunitiesdependent

238、onagriculturalproducebyproactivelyinvestinginthedevelopmentoftheAustraliansyntheticbiologyindustry.57Withgreatersoilmanagementtechniques(conservationtillage,organicsoilenrichment,carbonsequestration),thereisanopportunitytorestorelandscapehealth,increasesoilresilience

239、toclimatechange,improvewaterstorageandfiltrationandimprovecropproduction.5851DCCEEW(2023)Australiasemissionsprojections2023.DCCEEW,Canberra.(accessed20January2024).52Hatfield-Doddsetal.(2020)StocktakeofMegatrendsShapingAustralianAgriculture:2021Update.ABARES,Canberra,Austr

240、alia.(accessed12December2023).53AustralianGovernment(2023)TheBasin.Murray-DarlingBasinAuthority.(accessed12December2023);MallawaarachchiT,AurichtC,LochA,AdamsonD,QuigginJ(2020)WaterallocationinAustraliasMurray-DarlingBasin:managingchangeunderheighteneduncertainty.EconomicAn

241、alysisandPolicy(66),345369.54FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2015)IntergovernmentalTechnicalPanelonSoils(ITPS)StatusoftheWorldsSoilResources(SWSR)MainReport:FAOandITPS;DCCEEW(2021)AustraliaStateoftheEnvironment2021:land.(accessed13March2024);CSIRO(

242、2019)AustralianNationalOutlook.CSIRO,Canberra.(accessed12December2023).55Naughtinetal.(2022)OurFutureWorld:GlobalMegatrendsImpactingtheWayWeLiveOverComingDecades.CSIRO,Brisbane,Australia.56WoodT,ReeveA,HaJ(2021)TowardsNetZero:PracticalPoliciestoReduceAgriculturalEmission

243、s.GrattanInstitute,Melbourne,Australia.57CSIROFutures(2021)ANationalSyntheticBiologyRoadmap:IdentifyingCommercialandEconomicOpportunitiesforAustralia.CSIRO,Canberra,Australia.58DAWE(2021)NationalSoilStrategy.DAWE,Canberra,Australia.(accessed7March2024).ChallengesExtremeclimateev

244、entschallengetheprofitabilityoftheagriculturalsectorandlimittheproductivecapacityofAustraliasgrowingregions.Hotterconditionshavereducedtheprofitabilityofbroadacrefarmingby22%between2000and2019,relativetopre-2000data.52Increasingvariabilityinrainfallpatternsisch

245、allengingwateravailabilityandelevatingwaterscarcityconcernsintheMurray-DarlingBasin,akeyagriculturalareasupplying40%ofproduceinAustralia.53Withoutastrongfocusonlandscapestewardshipandmaintainingtheecosystemservicesrelieduponbyfarmingsystems,theongoingviabilityo

246、fagriculturalindustriesisatrisk.Acidification,salinity,erosionandlossoforganiccarbonmatterarecausingsoilhealthtodecline,limitingcropchoicesandyields.54RisingatmosphericCO2concentrationsincreaseoceanacidityanddamage12Ag2050ScenariosReport59ABARES(2022)Agriculturalc

247、ommoditystatistics.DAFF,Canberra.(accessed20January2024);DCCEEW(2023)Actualemissionsfortheagriculturesector.DCCEEW,Canberra.(accessed20January2024).60CSIRO(2022)AbouttheIndigenousseasonalcalendars.(accessed6March2024).61HughesN,LuM,SohWY,LawsonK(2022)Modellingtheeffectsof

248、climatechangeontheprofitabilityofAustralianfarms.ClimaticChange172,12.62HughesN,GoodayP(2021)ClimateChangeImpactsandAdaptationonAustralianFarms.ABARESInsights,Canberra,Australia.(accessed31January2024).63CSIRO(2019)AustralianNationalOutlook.CSIRO,Canberra.(accessed12Dece

249、mber2023).64FitchP,BattagliaM,LentonA,FeronP,GaoL,MeiY,HortleA,MacdonaldL,PearceM,OcchipintiS,RoxburghS,StevenA(2022)AustraliasSequestrationPotential.CSIRO.(accessed13March2024).OpportunitiesforpartnershipwithAboriginalandTorresStraitIslanderpeoplesAboriginalandTorresSt

250、raitIslanderpeopleshavealong-standingexperienceofobservingandmanagingCountrythroughseveralclimaticevents.PartneringwithAboriginalandTorresStraitIslanderpeoplescouldstrengthenthelandandagriculturesectorsunderstandingandresponsetoongoingenvironmentalchangesthrough

251、theirpracticesandcultureofcooperation.Forexample,withseveralIndigenousseasonalcalendarsbasedonecological,meteorologicalandhydrologicalchanges,60theiruniqueunderstandingofthelocalenvironmentsandtherelationshipswithinthemcanbeintegratedintomodernsystemstopreventthe

252、spreadofharmfulorganismsandimprovenaturalresourcemanagement.0.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.0045455055606570758085909519901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022tCO2ePER$OFOUTPUTEMISSIONS(MtCO2-e)AbsoluteemissionsEmissionIntensityDifferentregionsar

253、elikelytoexperiencearangeofchallengesandopportunitiesduetothedifferentimpactsofclimatechangeacrossAustraliasvastexpanseofagriculturalland.61Withmanyfarmsalreadymigratingcroppingactivitytohigher-rainfallzonestoadapt,thosealreadyinfavourableareascouldpivotto

254、newlanduses,establishthemselvesandboostprofitability.62Carbonfarmingopportunitiescanreduceoroffsetemissions,increasefoodandfibreproductionandincreasethebiodiversityofecosystems.Carbonforestsequestrationcouldproduceprofitablyonover30millionhectaresofland,ofwhicht

255、hereisdoubleofthemoremarginalagriculturallandinAustraliasintensiveusezone.63Integratingtreeswithinagriculturallandscapesreduceswindspeed,soilsurfaceevaporation,surfacewaterflowspeed,soilerosionandlocalisedsalinityinadditiontothebenefitsofimprovingcropandstock

256、productivity.64Figure5:AbsoluteemissionsandemissionintensityintheagriculturesectorhavebeenfallingNotes:FigureshowsestimatedabsoluteemissionsoractualemissionsinMtCO2eandemissionintensityintheagriculturesectorintCO2eper$ofoutputbetween1994and2021.Emissionintensit

257、ywascalculatedasactualemissionsdividedbygrossvalueaddedbytheagriculturesector(chainvolumemeasure).Definitionofagricultureexcludesforestryandfisheriesduetowhatemissionsintheagriculturesectorconsistof.Yearsshownonaxisarefiscalyears,i.e.,1994isJuly1994toJune2

258、021.5913LandandwaterWithgrowingpressureonavailabilityoflandandwaterresourcesforAustralianagriculture,thesectormustlooktonewlandandwatermanagementpracticestoensurelong-termimprovementstoproductivity.Currently,agricultureisthebiggestlanduser,occupyingoverhalfofA

259、ustralianland(Figure6).65Inaddition,agricultureaccountsforover70%ofnationallydistributedwateruse(Figure7).However,pressuresfrompopulationgrowth,urbansprawl,competinglandusesandclimatevariabilityareimpactingarablelandavailabilityandcausingshiftsinthecostoflandandw

260、ater.Proactiveresponsetochangesintheavailabilityandlocationofarableland,exploringopportunitiesinnewalternativeindustriesandlookingforwaystodiversifyandintensifyproductionwithpotentiallylimitedwatersupplieswillneedtobeconsideredtomaintainandboostproductivity,re

261、silienceandsustainability.LandusedforfarminginAustraliahasdeclinedfrom65%ofthecountryslandmassin1973to55%in2020,withageneraltrendtowardsincreasedintensification.66Propertypriceshaveseenunprecedentedgrowthratesof20%in2022,largelyduetoconsistentfavourableweather

262、conditionsboostingcommodityproductivityandlimitedagriculturelandontherealestatemarket.67Withthetotalnumberoffarmsgraduallydecreasingoverthedecades,theshareofoutputamongthelargerfarmsmakesuparoundhalfofAustraliastotalagriculturaloutput.68In202122,therewere5

263、4,400broadacreanddairyfarmbusinesses,with62%classifiedaslivestockfarms,30%ascroppingfarmsand9%asdairyfarms.69Astheclimateshifts,thesefarmingsystemsaremovingfurthersouthandcompetingwithexpandingurbancentres.70Majorcitieshavecontinuedtoseethelossoffarmlandtoe

264、xpandingurbandevelopmentandothercompetinglanduses;forexample,Victoriaisexpectedtoloseanother11,000hectarestohousingdevelopments.71Therehasbeenacompositionalshiftinagriculturaloutputsoverthepast50years.72Horticulturalcommodities,meat,oilseedandpulsesnowsurpassth

265、emilkandwoolproductionshare,andthedemandforcomplementaryproteinsisrapidlygrowing.73Mixedfarminghasgrowninsomeregionsasfarmersalternatebetweencropsandpasturestosafeguardagainstclimatethreats,divertmarginallandforcarbonsequestrationandimprovethequalityofecosy

266、stemservices.Australiahaspreviouslylaggedbehindtherestoftheworldintheuptakeofprotectedcropping,largelyduetoitsdiversegeographyandnaturalresourcesforoutdoorproduction,minimisingstrongdriversforchange.74Withtheeconomicimpactsfromclimatevariabilityaffectingproduc

267、ersmorestrongly,thehorticultureindustryisshifting,withprotectedcroppingbecomingarapidlygrowingsectorshowingaveragegrowthratesof60%peryear.7565ABARES(2023)SnapshotofAustralianAgriculture2023.ABARESInsights,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023).66ABARES(2023)Snapsh

268、otofAustralianAgriculture2023.ABARESInsights,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023);Naughtinetal.(2022)OurFutureWorld:GlobalMegatrendsImpactingtheWayWeLiveOverComingDecades.CSIRO,Brisbane,Australia.67JasperC(2023)HighdemandandtightsupplydriveAustralianfarmlandvalue

269、stonewhighs.ABCNews.(accessed5February2024);RuralBank(2023)Australianfarmlandvalues.(accessed5February2024).68DAFF(2023)ABARESreportsshowAustralianfarmersadaptingandadjustingtohelpoffsetclimateeffects.(accessed12December2023).69Hatfield-Doddsetal.(2020)StocktakeofMe

270、gatrendsShapingAustralianAgriculture:2021Update.ABARES,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023).70CSIRO(2019)AustralianNationalOutlook.CSIRO,Canberra.(accessed12December2023).71Hynninen(2021)ThousandsofhectaresoffarmlandbeinglosttoresidentialdevelopmentsinregionalVictori

271、a.ABCNews.(accessed5February2024);ParliamentofAustralia(2023)Australianfoodstory:feedingthenationandbeyond.InquiryintofoodsecurityinAustralia.(accessed5February2024).72ABARES(2023)SnapshotofAustralianAgriculture2023.ABARESInsights,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December20

272、23).73ABARES(2023)SnapshotofAustralianAgriculture2023.ABARESInsights,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023);WitteB,OblojP,KoktenturkS,MorachB,BriglM,RoggJ,SchulzeU,WalkerA,VonKoellerE,DehnertN,Grosse-HolzF(2021)Foodforthought:theproteintransformation,BostonConsultingG

273、roupandBlueHorizon.(accessed12December2023).74HortInnovation(2021)AustralianProtectedCroppingStrategy20212030.(accessed1February2024).75ProtectedCroppingAustralia(2020)GrowingprotectedcroppinginAustraliato2030.(accessed1February2024).14Ag2050ScenariosReportFigure6:Aust

274、raliaslanduseisdominatedbygrazingNotes:FigureshowstheproportionoflandinthedifferentcategoriesinAustralia.ThecategoryOtherincludesdefenceland,stockroutes,residualnativecover,miningandwasteareas,wastebodiesandlandunderrehabilitation.7676Climateworkscentre(2019)Landu

275、sefutures.(accessed20January2024).77ABS(2021)WaterAccount:Australia202122.(accessed20January2024).78ABS(2018)Grossvalueofirrigatedagriculturalproduction:201617.(accessed12December2023).79ABS(2018)Grossvalueofirrigatedagriculturalproduction:201617.(accessed12December2023).

276、80CSIRO(2019)AustralianNationalOutlook.CSIRO,Canberra.(accessed12December2023).81CSIRO(2019)AustralianNationalOutlook.CSIRO,Canberra.(accessed12December2023);Hatfield-Doddsetal.(2020)StocktakeofMegatrendsShapingAustralianAgriculture:2021Update.ABARES,Canberra,Australia.(accessed

277、12December2023).82NFF(2018)2030Roadmap:Australianagriculturesplanfora$100billionindustry.Australia.(accessed12December2023).83Fitchetal.(2022)AustraliasSequestrationPotential.CSIRO.(accessed13March2024).84ABS(2018)Grossvalueofirrigatedagriculturalproduction:201617.(accesse

279、dindustriesandhouseholdsforthefiscalyear202122.Distributedwaterreferstowaterflowsfromoneuser(orsupplier)toanotheruserafterextractionandexcludesreuseofwater,self-extractedwaterusesandwastewatercollected.Distributedwateristhereforenotequaltototalwateruse.77Grazi

280、ng(nativevegetation)45%Conservation23%Other17%Grazing(modifedpastures)9%Croplandandhorticulture4%Forestry2%Urban0.2%Agriculture,forestryandfshing73%Households18%Manufacturing2%Mining1%Otherindustries6%Irrigatedagricultureuseslessthan1%ofagriculturalland78andproducesapproxima

281、tely25%ofAustraliastotalagriculturalvalue.However,itaccountsformorethan60%ofallextractedwater.79Thereisbroadacceptancethatlong-termtrendsofextendeddroughtperiodsandlowerwinterrainfallhaveaffectedwateravailabilityanduseinthepastandwillcontinuetochallengethe

282、wholesectorswatersecurity.80Itwillbeimportanttoconsiderthewaterpolicymanagementpracticesneededtorespondtoongoingtrendsofclimatevariationaswellasextremeweatherconditionssuchasfloodingthatcanpositivelyimpactwateravailability.ChallengesTheenergytransitionandcon

283、tinuedurbangrowthwillintensifylandusecompetitioninAustralia.81Infrastructurewilllikelyneedtobebuiltonproductiveagriculturallandtomeetnationalrenewableenergytargetsby2050.82Emissionreductioneffortsthroughcarbonsequestrationandagroforestryareexpectedtotriggersi

284、gnificantlanduseshifts.Traditionalapproachestolandandwaterusewillbechallengedinthefuturetomaximisearablelandforvaluableagriculturalgoodsandreducetheimpactonover-allocatedwatercatchmentsystemswhilemaintainingfarmsustainability,productivityandprofitability.83Redu

285、cedwateravailabilityforirrigatedagricultureandcontinuedover-extractioncoulddecreaseyieldsinregionsunabletoswitchtorain-fedproduction.84Asaccesstowaterbecomesmoreunreliablewithmorevarieddroughtandfloodconditionsacrossthecountry,andasthedemandfromdifferentsect

286、orsgrows,agriculturewillbechallengedwithmaintainingapositivewaterbalanceandachievingsignificantefficiencygains.8515OpportunitiesThereisanopportunityforAustralianfarmerstocreatenewrevenuestreamsfrommarginalfarmland.Carbonsequestrationisviableonover30millionhectar

287、esofmarginallandandplantingonthisscalewithhighcarbonpricescoulddoublelandownerreturnstoasmuchas$114billionperannum.86Thereisalsoagrowingbaseofliteratureongreen,circularandbio-economiesandtherolethattechnologicalornature-basedsolutionscanplayintappingin

288、tothoseareas.87Circularandbio-economiesmayrepresentanotheropportunityforfarmerstodiversifytheirrevenuestreamsandtapintonewindustriessuchaswasteutilisationandbioenergy.88Expandingandprogressingdiversemixedfarmingsystemsandprotectedcroppingofferanopportunityfor

289、climateresilienceandfoodsecurityintheAustralianagriculturesector.89Mixedcroplivestocksystemsreduceglobalwarmingpotentials,lowernitrogenlosses,increasesoilorganiccarbon,increasewateruseefficiencyandlowertotalproductioncostsatthefarmscale.9086CSIRO(2019)AustralianNa

290、tionalOutlook.CSIRO,Canberra.(accessed12December2023).87DAmatoD,DrosteN,AllenB,KettunenM,LhtinenK,KorhonenJ,LeskinenP,MatthiesBD,ToppinenA(2017)Green,circular,bioeconomy:acomparativeanalysisofsustainabilityavenues.JournalofCleanerProduction168,716734.(accessed13March2024);

291、DAmatoD,KorhonenJ(2021)Integratingthegreeneconomy,circulareconomyandbioeconomyinastrategicsustainabilityframework.EcologicalEconomics,188,107143.(accessed13March2024).88GomezSanJuanM,HarnettS,AlbinelliI(2022)SustainableandCircularBioeconomyintheClimateAgenda:Opportuniti

292、estoTransformAgrifoodSystems.FAO,Rome,Italy.(accessed13March2024).89ProtectedCroppingAustralia(2020)GrowingprotectedcroppinginAustraliato2030.(accessed1February2024).90BakerE,KerrR,DeryngD,FarrellA,Gurney-SmithH,ThorntonP(2023)Mixedfarmingsystems:potentialsandbarriersf

293、orclimatechangeadaptationinfoodsystems.CurrentOpinioninEnvironmentalSustainability62,101270;NFF(2018)2030Roadmap:Australianagriculturesplanfora$100billionindustry.Australia.(accessed12December2023).91CharlesSturtUniversity(2019)DevelopingamixedfarmingsystemsRD&Aprogram.

294、MeatandLivestockAustralia.(accessed20February2024).92CraineR,WellsV(2021)AgricultureandtheCircularEconomy.CEAT,AustralianNationalUniversity.(accessed6February2024).93Bakeretal.(2023)Mixedfarmingsystems:potentialsandbarriersforclimatechangeadaptationinfoodsystems.Curre

295、ntOpinioninEnvironmentalSustainability62,101270.94PetrovicsD,GiezenM(2021)Planningforsustainableurbanfoodsystems:ananalysisoftheup-scalingpotentialofverticalfarming.JournalofEnvironmentalPlanningandManagement65(5),785-808.Althoughmixedcroplivestocksystemsareinplacein

296、Australia(e.g.47millionhectaresinsouthernareasandWesternAustralia),91newandfurtherdiversifiedproductionsystemsmayoffersolutionstofurtherbuildresilienceandincreasebenefitstobiodiversity.Thesemixedsystemsopenupmanycirculareconomyopportunities,includingusinglivestockw

297、asteandotherbiologicalbyproductsascroppinginputsorasbiomassfeedstocks,orturningfoodwasteintoproteinforlivestockfeed.92Incontrast,integratedaquaponics,hydroponicsorprotectedcroppingsystemswithalternativefeedoptions,biodegradableproductsandout-of-seasonproducecanimp

298、rovelong-termclimatebufferingandreducelandusedegradation.93Investingindisruptiveproductionmethodsdecoupledfromlandusecouldaddresschallengesintraditionalagriculture.94Thesustainableintensificationoflandcouldimprovelanduseefficiencywhileminimisingenvironmentalimpact

299、s.16Ag2050ScenariosReportOpportunitiesforpartnershipwithAboriginalandTorresStraitIslanderpeoplesAboriginalandTorresStraitIslanderpeoplesconnectiontoland,sea,sky,waterways,plants,animalsandculturallawsovertensofthousandsofyearsprovidestheopportunityforknowledgesharin

300、gandpartnershiptointegrateIndigenousagriculturaltechniquesandcropsintonewfarmingsystems.GreatercollaborationandintegrationofIndigenouslandandseamanagementpracticescanpromotehealthysoil,improvewateraccessandquality,increasebiodiversity,buildresilience,expandlandrest

301、orationoutcomesanddeveloptwo-waylearningwithIndigenouspartners.95Asakeyresourcetothesector,implementingnewplantbreedingtechniquesaswellassmartwatergovernanceandinfrastructureadvancementsthatenablemoreproductivewatercaptureandusecanachievebetterwateruseefficie

302、ncyandmanagement.Forexample,dataanalyticsandin-fieldsensingcapabilitiescoulddeterminethebesttimingforirrigationbasedoncropandsoiltype,climateconditions,wateravailabilityandrisk.96Expandingoncurrentinitiatives,suchastheNationalFarmersFederationstargettoincreasewa

303、teruseefficiencyby20%by2030,97canbeconsideredtopromotewaterrecoveryprojectsthatenhanceenvironmentaloutcomesandcommunities.9895ScaleClimateAction(2023)Indigenouscropknowledge:sustainableadaptationforlocalenvironments.(accessed24January2024).96PetrusaJ,DeckerE,Tilley

304、A,OConnorA(2021)ProspectiveAnalysisofWaterWise:FinalCaseStudyReport.CSIRO,Pullenvale,Australia.97NFF(2018)2030Roadmap:Australianagriculturesplanfora$100billionindustry.Australia.(accessed12December2023).98DCCEEW(2023)Off-farmEfficiencyProgram.(accessed7March2024).17Productivi

305、tyandinnovationTheinnovation,developmentandadoptionofnewtechnologies,includingtools,businessmodelsandfarmingpractices,havebeenkeydriversfortheproductivityandprofitabilityofAustralianfarmsamidthemanychallengesfacingthesector.Australiahasgloballyrecognisedagriculture

306、R&DcapabilitiesandastrongR&Dpipeline.99Innovationintheagriculturesectorhasledtosignificantproductivitygainsoverthepastdecades.However,thecurrentagricultureinnovationsystemfacesseveralchallengesindeliveringthetechnology-drivenproductivitygainsneededtoensurelong-

307、termprofitabilityandcompetitivenessforAustralianfarmingsystems,asrecognisedinseveralreviewsofthecurrentsystem.100Despitethestrongpipelineofresearchandinnovation,Australianagricultureisyettoachievewhole-sectordigitalmaturity.101Australianagricultureisarelativelysm

308、allmarketandfacesagrowingdisadvantageincommercialisingandsecuringinvestmentforthedevelopmentandscalingofnewtechnologiesdomestically.Thesectorfacesagrowinglabourshortageandincreasingcompetitionforthecriticalskillsneededtounlocktechnology-drivenproductivity.102Co

309、nsolidationandintegrationoffarmbusinessesbringbenefitstothosebusinesses,103suchasbuyingpower,step-changetechnologiesanddirectpathstomajorretailersviaverticallyintegratedsupplychains.Smallerandnichefarmsfacechallengeswithcontinuingconsolidation,includinghigherprice

310、sforagriculturallandandbarrierstoadoptionofnewtechnologies.104Overthepastthreedecades,Australianagriculturehasbenefitedfromstrongproductivitygainsdrivenbyincreasesinfarmscale,newandefficientpracticesandimprovedvarietiesandgenetics.105Emergingeconomiesarenowbe

311、nefitingfromthesesamedriversandtheirgrowthhasovertakenAustralias,alongwithagriculturesectorsinotheradvancedeconomies.106TherearealsosignsthatthepaceandsuccessofcollaborationandinnovationintheentiretyofAustraliaisslowing.AlthoughAustraliaranked7thofOECDcount

312、riesonitsrelativenumberofinnovation-activebusinessesin2023,itranked24thintheGlobalInnovationIndex,whichisbackwardsfromits17thrankingin2015.107Australiasbroadacreproductivitygrowth,incorporatingfactorssuchasfarminnovations,researchinvestmentandinvestmentinhumanc

313、apital,hasdeclinedfromannualgrowthof2.2%between1978and2000toanaverageyearlygrowthof0.4%between2000and2022.108Adjustedforclimatechange,broadacreproductivitygrowthhasincreasedby28%since1989.109Thisincreasehasoffsetthenegativeimpactsofclimatechangeoverthisperio

314、dandenabledatleaststableproductivitygainsforthesector.Astheimpactsofcontinuingclimatechangegrow,improvementstothecommercialisationandadoptionofR&DwillbecriticaltomaintaintheprofitabilityandglobalcompetitivenessforAustralianfarmingsystems.99DAWE(2022)DigitalFou

315、ndationsforAgricultureStrategy:DrivingtheDevelopmentandUptakeofDigitalTechnologiesintheAustralianAgriculture,FisheriesandForestryIndustry.DAWE,Canberra,Australia.100EY(2019)Agriculturalinnovation:anationalapproachtogrowAustraliasfuture.(accessed8February2024);RuralRDC(20

316、18)Vision2050.(accessed8February2024).101DAWE(2022)DigitalFoundationsforAgricultureStrategy:DrivingtheDevelopmentandUptakeofDigitalTechnologiesintheAustralianAgriculture,FisheriesandForestryIndustry.DAWE,Canberra,Australia.102EY(2019)Agriculturalinnovation:anationalapproac

317、htogrowAustraliasfuture.(accessed8February2024).103JacksonT,ZammitK,Hatfield-DoddsS(2018)SnapshotofAustralianAgriculture.ABARESInsights,Canberra,Australia.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/insights(accessed24Jan2024).104ANZ(2017)AgtechAdvanceAustraliaAgriculture.Australia

318、andNewZealandBankingGroupLimited.(accessed12December2023).105Hatfield-Doddsetal.(2020)StocktakeofMegatrendsShapingAustralianAgriculture:2021Update.ABARES,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023).106Hatfield-Doddsetal.(2020)StocktakeofMegatrendsShapingAustralianAgricult

319、ure:2021Update.ABARES,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023).107CornellUniversity,INSEAD,WIPO(2015)TheGlobalInnovationIndex2015:EffectiveInnovationPoliciesforDevelopment.Fontainebleau,Ithaca,andGeneva;DISR(2023)Businessinnovationdata.(accessed6March2024).108ABARES(2023)Aust

320、ralianagriculturalproductivity:broadacreanddairyestimates.(accessed12December2023).109HughesN(2021)AnalysisofClimateChangeImpactsandAdaptationonAustralianFarms.ABARESInsights,Canberra,Australia.(accessed13March2024).18Ag2050ScenariosReportThetrendtowardsconsolidatingand

321、corporatisingagriculturebusinesseshasledtogreaterscale,buyingpowerandproductivitygrowth.ThenumberofAustralianfarmshashalvedfromover180,000intheearly1970stoapproximately90,000today(Figure8).110Thedecliningnumberoffarmersfrom1993to2023(Figure9)isalsoindicativeo

322、ffarmaggregationovertheyears.Largerfarmstendtohavestrongerassetsandaccesstocapitaltouptakenewandriskiertechnologiesandpracticescomparedtosmallbusinesses,leadingtobetterproductivityoutcomes.111Theincreaseinbusinesssizeisestimatedtohavecontributedto62%ofthe

323、increaseinagriculturaloutputoverthepastthreedecades.112Currently,thelargest10%ofbroadacrefarmsproduce50%oftotaloutput,whilethesmallest50%offarmsproduce10%oftotaloutput.113AlthoughAustralianfarmshaveenjoyedproductivitygainsoverthepastdecades,theynowfacethechall

324、engeofasignificanthumancapitalgapinregionalareas,drivenbyanageingworkforceandbarrierstoentryfornewtalent.Asstatedinthe2023ABARESsnapshotofAustraliasagricultureworkforce,114Australianagricultureemployed239,093people,whichisa4.7%increasefrom2016,andmadeup2%of

325、theAustralianworkforce.On-farmemploymenthasfallenby25%overthepastthreedecades,buttheworkforcehassteadilybeengrowingsincetheearly2000s.Betweenthe2016and2021census,theproportionsofwomen,youngpeopleagedunder35,workersaged65andover,andworkersfromculturalandlingu

326、isticbackgroundsallincreased.Simultaneously,alargeportionoftheworkforcehasgraduallyaged(Figure9).Thelowproportionofyoungpeopleislargelyduetoseveralbarrierstoentryandretentionoftheseworkers.Theseincludetheconsolidationoffarms,whichreducestheopportunitiesforentry

327、,difficultygainingcapitalandcreditforyoungpeople,urbanisationleadingtolessinvestmentinregionalinfrastructureandservices,andalackofqualitymodernagriculture-relatededucationthatisaccessiblefromremotelocations.115Figure8:ThenumberofAustralianfarmsisdecreasingNotes:F

328、igureshowsthenumberoffarmsoragriculturalbusinessesinAustraliabetweentheperiod2005-06to2021-22.Missingdatafortheyear2005-05and2016-17wascalculatedusingthereportedincreaseordecrease(inpercentage)inthefollowingyear.Datawasimputedformissingyearsof2013-14to2014

329、-15byusingthedifferencebetweenthe2012-13and2015-16datapoints.116110ABS(2021-22)AgriculturalCommodities,Australia.ABSWebsite,Canberra,Australia.(accessed13March2024).111ANZ(2017)AgtechAdvanceAustraliaAgriculture.AustraliaandNewZealandBankingGroupLimited.(accessed12Decembe

330、r2023).112ANZ(2017)AgtechAdvanceAustraliaAgriculture.AustraliaandNewZealandBankingGroupLimited.(accessed12December2023).113DAFF(2023)ABARESreportsshowAustralianfarmersadaptingandadjustingtohelpoffsetclimateeffects.(accessed12December2023).114ABARES(2023)SnapshotofAus

331、traliasAgriculturalWorkforce.ABARESInsights,issue3,Canberra,Australia.(accessed12December2023).115WuW,DawsonD,Fleming-MuozD,SchleigerE,HortonJ(2019)TheFutureofAustraliasAgriculturalWorkforce.CSIROData61,Canberra,Australia.116ABS(2021-22)AgriculturalCommodities,Australia.ABSWebs

332、ite,Canberra,Australia.(accessed13March2024).60,00075,00090,000105,000120,000135,000150,000165,000200506200910201314201718202122NUMBEROFAUSTRALIANFARMS19ChallengesInnovationhashelpeddevelopefficientandgloballycompetitiveagriculture,forestryandfisheriesindustries,butchangesareneed

333、edtothecurrentapproachestoagriculturalR&DinAustraliatodeliversolutionstothecomplexchallengesoutlinedinthischapter.118Perceivedorrealconcernsregardingthecostbenefitanalysisandsuitabilityofagiventechnology,regulatorycomplexityandareluctanceoffirstmoverstosharedatacollectivelyhinderthewidespreadadoptionofinnovativeagritech.119Further,thecurrentfo