我曾在多年前读过一次霍华德·马克斯的《投资最重要的事》,当时年少无知,觉得这都是老生常谈的东西罢了,但今年偶然重读了两次,结果意外地“真香”......我甚至认为,这本书堪称是现代的《聪明的投资者》,真正做到为价值投资理论大厦添砖加瓦,不论老手还是新手都能从中得到很多启发。对我来说,这本书解答了几个纠缠我多年的困惑。
尽管本身英语水平不高,我还是耐着性子读完了这本英文书,也做了一些摘录。这些摘录原本是给自己看的,是我认为比较能警醒我的语句,所以收录得比较简略。如果有兴趣的球友可以看看。
强烈推荐对霍华德有兴趣的朋友,看完中文版记得去看看原版书。
P.S.这篇摘录是我对着纸质书敲出来的,难免有错误之处,还请各位球友见谅。最后吐槽下,我原来的PDF做得色彩斑斓,结果雪球的文字只有黑色,大家只能看得会辛苦一点了。
2.Valueismyapproach.Inmybook,consistencytrumpsdrama.
4.Thebiggerthediscount,thebiggeryourmarginofsafety.Toosmalladiscountandthelimitedmarginofsafetynorealprotectionatall.
3.Allbubblesstartwithsomenuggetoftruth.
1.Paul:Iwouldgosofarastosaythattheriskofpermanentcapitallossistheonlyrisktoworryabout.
1.Riskmeansuncertaintyaboutwhichoutcomewilloccurandaboutthepossibilityoflosswhentheunfavorableonesdo.
2.Highrisk,inotherwords,comesprimarilywithhighprices.
1.Rulenumberone:mostthingswillprovetobecyclical.
Rulenumbertwo:someofthegreatestopportunitiesforgainandlosscomewhenotherpeopleforgetrulenumberone.
2.Cyclesareself-correcting,andtheirreversalisnotnecessarilydependentonexogenousevents.Theyreverse(ratherthangoingonforever)becausetrendscreatethereasonsfortheirownreversal.
3.Ignoringcyclesandextrapolatingtrendsisoneofthemostdangerousthingsaninvestorcando.
1.Stocksarecheapestwheneverythinglooksgrim.
3.Thereareafewthingsofwhichwecanbesure,andthisisone:Extrememarketbehaviorwillreverse.
1.Mostpeoplepossesstheintellectneededtoanalyzedata,butfarfewerareabletolookmoredeeplyintothingsandwithstandthepowerfulInfluenceofpsychology.
4.Comparingyourlotwiththeirsisaverycorrosiveprocess-albeitnatural-andwillputalotofpressureonyou.
Joel:Inthelongrun,themarketgetsitright.Butyouhavetosurviveovertheshortrun,togettothelongrun.
1.Thetendencytomistakeobjectivemeritforinvestmentopportunities,andthefailuretodistinguishbetweengoodassetsandgoodbuys,getmostinvestorsintotrouble.
4.Klarman:Still,calibrationisImportant.Setthebartoohighandyoumightremainoutofthemarketforaverylongtime.Setittoolowandyouwillbefullyinvestedalmostimmediately;itwillbeasthoughyouhadnostandardsatall.
2.Paul:Beverycarefulwithyourownforecastsandevenmorecarefulwiththoseofothers!
4.Onekeyquestioninvestorshavetoansweriswhethertheyviewthefutureasknowableorunknowable.
1.Theinvestmentworldisnotanorderlyandlogicalplacewherethefuturecanbepredictedandspecificactionsalwaysproducespecificresults.Thetruthis,muchinvestingisruledbyluck.
2.Weshouldspendourtimetryingtofindvalueamongtheknowable-industries,companiesandsecurities-ratherthanbaseourdecisiononwhatweexpectfromtheless-knowablemacroworldofeconomiesandbroadmarkerperformance.
4..Thefirstistheexclusionofloserfromportfolios.Thisisbestaccomplishedbyconductingextensiveduediligence,applyinghighstandards,demandingalowpriceandgenerousmarginforerrorandbeinglesswillingtobetoncontinuedprosperity,rosyforecastsanddevelopmentthatmaybeuncertain.
Thesecondelementistheavoidanceofpooryearsand,especially,exposuretomeltdownincrashes.
5.Lowpriceistheultimatesourceofmarginforerror.
6.Ifweavoidthelosers,thewinnerwilltakecareofthemselves.
PerfectioninInvestingisgenerallyunobtainable;thebestwecanhopeforistomakealotofgoodinvestmentsandexcludemostofthebadones.
2.Noneofusshouldexpecttobeimmuneandinsulatedfromthem.Althoughwewillfeelthem,wemustnotsuccumb;rather,wemustrecognizethemforwhattheyareandstandagainstthem.Reasonmustovercomeemotion.