2.整体分析：涉及社科类(P1)、生物类(P2)与社科类(P3)
4.P1从新手到专家(2007，2009，2010年等均有出现)
题型搭配：判断5+填空8(包括流程图填空)
参考答案
1principlesandrules
2mentor
3journeyman
4patternsofbehaviour
5complex
6FALSE
7NOTGIVEN
8TRUE
9FALSE
10TRUE
11models
12humanbiases
13consensus
BecominganExpert
Expertiseiscommitmentcoupledwithcreativity.Specifically,itisthecommitmentoftime,energy,andresourcestoarelativelynarrowfieldofstudyandthecreativeenergynecessarytogeneratenewknowledgeinthatfield.Ittakesaconsiderableamountoftimeandregularexposuretoalargenumberofcasestobecomeanexpert.
A
Anindividualentersafieldofstudyasanovice.Thenoviceneedstolearntheguidingprinciplesandrulesofagiventaskinordertoperformthattask.Concurrently,thenoviceneedstobeexposedtospecificcases,orinstances,thattesttheboundariesofsuchheuristics.Generally,anovicewillfindamentortoguideherthroughtheprocess.Afairlysimpleexamplewouldbesomeonelearningtoplaychess.Thenovicechessplayerseeksamentortoteachhertheobjectofthegame,thenumberofspaces,thenamesofthepieces,thefunctionofeachpiece,howeachpieceismoved,andthenecessaryconditionsforwinningorlosingthegame.
B
Intime,andwithmuchpractice,thenovicebeginstorecognizepatternsofbehaviorwithincasesand.thus,becomesajourneyman.Withmorepracticeandexposuretoincreasinglycomplexcases,thejourneymanfindspatternsnotonlywithincasesbutalsobetweencases.Moreimportantly,thejourneymanlearnsthatthesepatternsoftenrepeatthemselvesovertime.Thejourneymanstillmaintainsregularcontactwithamentortosolvespecificproblemsandlearnmorecomplexstrategies.Returningtotheexampleofthechessplayer,theindividualbeginstolearnpatternsofopeningmoves,offensiveanddefensivegame-playingstrategies,andpatternsofvictoryanddefeat.
C
Whenajourneymanstartstomakeandtesthypothesesaboutfuturebehaviorbasedonpastexperiences,shebeginsthenexttransition.Onceshecreativelygeneratesknowledge,ratherthansimplymatchingsuperficialpatterns,shebecomesanexpert.Atthispoint,sheisconfidentinherknowledgeandnolongerneedsamentorasaguide—shebecomesresponsibleforherownknowledge.Inthechessexample,onceajourneymanbeginscompetingagainstexperts,makespredictionsbasedonpatterns,andteststhosepredictionsagainstactualbehavior,sheisgeneratingnewknowledgeandadeeperunderstandingofthegame.Sheiscreatingherowncasesratherthanrelyingonthecasesofothers.
D
Thechessexampleisarathershortdescriptionofanapprenticeshipmodel.Apprenticeshipmayseemlikearestrictive18thcenturymodeofeducation,butitisstillastandardmethodoftrainingformanycomplextasks.Academicdoctoralprogramsarebasedonanapprenticeshipmodel,asarefieldslikelaw,music,engineering,andmedicine.Graduatestudentsenterfieldsofstudy,findmentors,andbeginthelongprocessofbecomingindependentexpertsandgeneratingnewknowledgeintheirrespectivedomains.
EPsychologistsandcognitivescientistsagreethatthetimeittakestobecomeanexpertdependsonthecomplexityofthetaskandthenumberofcases,orpatterns,towhichanindividualisexposed.Themorecomplexthetask,thelongerittakestobuildexpertise,or,moreaccurately,thelongerittakestoexperienceandstorealargenumberofcasesorpatterns.
F
ThePowerofExpertise
Anexpertperceivesmeaningfulpatternsinherdomainbetterthannon-experts.Whereanoviceperceivesrandomordisconnecteddatapoints,anexpertconnectsregularpatternswithinandbetweencases.Thisabilitytoidentifypatternsisnotaninnateperceptualskill;ratheritreflectstheorganizationofknowledgeafterexposuretoandexperiencewiththousandsofcases.Expertshaveadeeperunderstandingoftheirdomainsthannovicesdo,andutilizehigher-orderprinciplestosolveproblems.Anovice,forexample,mightgroupobjectstogetherbycolororsize,whereasanexpertwouldgroupthesameobjectsaccordingtotheirfunctionorutility.Expertscomprehendthemeaningofdataandweighvariableswithdifferentcriteriawithintheirdomainsbetterthannovices.Expertsrecognizevariablesthathavethelargestinfluenceonaparticularproblemandfocustheirattentiononthosevariables.
G
Expertshavebetterdomain-specificshort-termandlong-termmemorythannovicesdo.Moreover,expertsperformtasksintheirdomainsfasterthannovicesandcommitfewererrorswhileproblemsolving.Interestingly,expertsgoaboutsolvingproblemsdifferentlythannovices.Expertsspendmoretimethinkingaboutaproblemtofullyunderstanditatthebeginningofataskthandonovices,whoimmediatelyseektofindasolution.Expertsusetheirknowledgeofpreviouscasesascontextforcreatingmentalmodelstosolvegivenproblems.
H
I
TheParadoxofExpertise
Thestrengthsofexpertisecanalsobeweaknesses.Althoughonewouldexpectexpertstobegoodforecasters,theyarenotparticularlygoodatmakingpredictionsaboutthefuture.Sincethe1930s,researchershavebeentestingtheabilityofexpertstomakeforecasts.Theperformanceofexpertshasbeentestedagainstactuarialtablestodetermineiftheyarebetteratmakingpredictionsthansimplestatisticalmodels.Seventyyearslater,withmorethantwohundredexperimentsindifferentdomains,itisclearthattheanswerisno.Ifsuppliedwithanequalamountofdataaboutaparticularcase,anactuarialtableisasgood,orbetter,thananexpertatmakingcallsaboutthefuture.Evenifanexpertisgivenmorespecificcaseinformationthanisavailabletothestatisticalmodel,theexpertdoesnottendtooutperformtheactuarialtable.
J
Theoristsandresearchersdifferwhentryingtoexplainwhyexpertsarelessaccurateforecastersthanstatisticalmodels.Somehavearguedthatexperts,likeallhumans,areinconsistentwhenusingmentalmodelstomakepredictions.Anumberofresearcherspointtohumanbiasestoexplainunreliableexpertpredictions.Duringthelast30years,researchershavecategorized,experimented,andtheorizedaboutthecognitiveaspectsofforecasting.Despitesuchefforts,theliteratureshowslittleconsensusregardingthecausesormanifestationsofhumanbias.
5.P2Leaf-cuttingantsandfungus(2013年考查过)
题型搭配：特征配对6+段落信息配对5+单选2
14B
15A
16A
17B
18B
19A
20F
22H
22C
23J
24G
25A
26C
6.P3决策
题型搭配：单选5+填空4+判断5
27B
28B
29C
30B
31D
32A
33D
34G
35B
36NO
37NOTGIVEN
38NOTGIVEN
39YES
40YES
考试预测
1.这次考试题型十分传统，填空判断配对几乎三足鼎立。下场考生可留意ListofHeadings及多选题，及练习包含wordlist的summary
2.下场考试的话题可能有关科技类，历史类等。
3.重点浏览10-13年机经。有余力可刷九分达人。
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